Taiwan's international tourism: a time series analysis with calendar effects and joint outlier adjustments
✍ Scribed by Hui-Lin Lin; Lon-Mu Liu; Yi-Heng Tseng; Yu-Wen Su
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2011
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 436 KB
- Volume
- 13
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 1099-2340
- DOI
- 10.1002/jtr.779
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
In this paper, we examine monthly tourist arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong and the USA between January 1971 and December 2008. Our purpose is to fi nd events or variables that affect Taiwan's international tourism. We fi nd that the Chinese New Year has a positive effect on tourist arrivals from Hong Kong, but negative effects for other countries. Through outlier detection, we obtain a better understanding of the effects of non-recurring events that have impacted Taiwan's international tourism. Using transfer function model with automatic outlier detection and adjustment, we fi nd that the exchange rate infl uences tourist arrivals from Japan and Hong Kong.