System Dynamics: Theory and Applications (Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science Series)

✍ Scribed by Brian Dangerfield (editor)

• Publisher: Springer
• Year: 2020
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 535
• Series: Springer Reference
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

This new book addresses the status of the field of System Dynamics 60+ years after its inception. It presents state-of-the-art expositions by leading authorities in either a facet of the theory and methodology of the subject or its application in a specific domain. Exhibiting greater reach and authority than would be possible in a conventional authored textbook, the volume includes nine chapters covering methodological aspects, and 14 on various contemporary applications.

Emerging from the System Dynamics section of the Encyclopedia of Complexity & Systems Science, First Edition (2009), the book features brand new chapters covering project management, workforce modelling, applications in defense, operations management, engineering of strategy, the roots of model validation, as well as many considerably enhanced versions of existing chapters. Together, the chapters reveal a remarkable landscape of theory and practice, and how System Dynamics can contribute criticalpolicy insights to a broad audience of students and professionals across many fields of study.

✦ Table of Contents

Foreword
Series Preface
Volume Preface
Acknowledgments
Contents
About the Editor-in-Chief
Biography
Education
About the Volume Editor
Contributors
Part I: Introduction
System Dynamics: Introduction
Part II: Theory and Methodology
Core of System Dynamics
Glossary
Definition of the Subject
Introduction
Feedback Thinking
Loop Dominance and Nonlinearity
The Endogenous Point of View
System Structure
Levels and Rates
Behavior Is a Consequence of System Structure
Suggestions for Further Reading on the Core of System Dynamics
Bibliography
System Dynamics in the Evolution of the Systems Approach
Glossary
Definition of the Subject
Introduction
Emergence of the Systems Approach
Common Grounds and Differences
The Variety of Systems Methodologies
System Dynamics: Its Features, Strengths, and Limitations
Strengths of SD
Limitations of SD
Actual and Potential Relationships
Outlook
Appendix - Milestones in the Evolution of the Systems Approach in General and System Dynamics in Particular
Bibliography
Primary Literature
Books and Reviews
Scenario-Driven Planning with System Dynamics
Glossary
Definition of the Subject
Introduction
SdP with SD History: Always Back, Always in Style, Always Practical
SdP with SD Use and Roadmap
Roadmap
Environmental Turbulence and Future Uncertainty
Environmental Turbulence
Future Uncertainty
SdP with SD: The Modeling Process Strategic Situation Formulation
The Modeling Process Strategic Situation Formulation
Case 1: Cyprus´ Environment and Hotel Profitability
Model Description (Case 1)
Cyprus´ Environment, Population, and Tourism Model Sectors
Cyprus´ Tourism Growth Scenarios (Case 1)
Case 2: A Japanese Chemicals Keiretsu (JCK)
Model Description (Case 2)
JCK´s Computed Scenarios (Case 2)
Future Directions
Bibliography
Primary Literature
Books and Reviews
Engineering of Strategy: A General, Unified Theory of Performance and Strategic Management
Introduction
The Theory/Practice Disconnect in Strategic Management
Requirements of a General Unified Theory (GUT)
The Question to Be Answered
Explaining Immediate Performance
Explaining the Changing Quantities of Resources
Explaining Rates of Change to Resources
Causal Ambiguity, Intangible Factors, and Capabilities
Feedback and the Business System
Competition
Fulfilling the Requirements for a GUT
Future Directions
Bibliography
Group Model Building
Glossary
Definition of the Subject and Its Importance
Introduction
System Dynamics
Group Model Building Approaches
Group Model Building: Basic Ideas and Concepts
Objectives of Group Model Building
Designing Group Model Building Projects
Conducting Group Model Building Sessions
Researching Group Model Building Effectiveness
Future Directions
Bibliography
Primary Literature
Books and Reviews
System Dynamics: Engineering Roots of Model Validation
Glossary
Definition of the Subject
Introduction
Engineering
System Dynamics: Engineering DNA´´ Model Validity Future Directions Bibliography System Dynamics Modeling: Validation for Quality Assurance Glossary Introduction Epistemological Foundations Positivism and Critique Pragmatism: A Challenge to Positivism More Challenges to Positivism Critical Rationalism On the Meaning of Validity and Validation On Objectivity Validation Methods Tests About Model-Related Context Test of Model Framing Issue Identification Test Adequacy of Methodology Test System Configuration Test System Improvement Test Tests of Model Structure Direct Structure Tests Indirect Structure Tests Tests of Model Behavior Behavior Reproduction Tests Behavior Anticipation Tests Behavior Anomaly Test Family Member Test Surprise Behavior Test Turing Test Validation Process Synopsis and Outlook Appendix: Overview of the Tests Described in This Entry Bibliography Primary Literature Books and Reviews Optimization of System Dynamics Models Glossary Definition of the Subject and Its Importance Optimization as Calibration Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Payoff Function The Recording Point for Reported Data Calibration Optimization Results Avoid Cumulated Data Optimization of Performance (Policy Optimization) Policy Experiment No. 1 Policy Experiment No. 2 Examples of SD Optimization Reported in the Literature Future Directions in SD Optimization Bibliography Analytical Methods for Structural Dominance Analysis in System Dynamics Glossary Definition of the Subject Introduction Characterizing Linear and Nonlinear Systems Traditional Control Theory Approaches Pathway Participation Metrics Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis Eigenvectors and Dynamic Decomposition Weights (DDW) Future Directions Bibliography Part III: Applications Business Policy and Strategy, System Dynamics Applications to Glossary Definition of the Subject Introduction Using System Dynamics Models in Policy and Strategy Formulation and Implementation Role of System Dynamics Models in Policy and Strategy Formulation Synergy Between Traditional Strategy and System Dynamics Working with Management Teams to Achieve Implementation Phase 1: Structuring the Problem Phase 2: Developing an Initial Model and Generating Insight Phase 3: Refining and Expanding the Model and Developing a Strategy Phase 4: Ongoing Strategy Management System and Organizational Learning Differences in Emphasis and Style CLDs Versus SF Qualitative Versus Quantitative Modeling Need for Data/Validation Level of Detail and Model Complexity Process Examples Theory Development: Understanding the Drivers of Business Dynamics Cycles and Instability: Stock Management, Supply Chains, and Manufacturing Systems Productivity and Eroding Performance: Service Industry Dynamics Life Cycles of Products and Diffusion Growth Dynamics Applications and Case Examples Future Directions Bibliography System Dynamics Applications to Health Care in the United States Glossary Definition of the Subject Introduction Models of Specific Chronic Illnesses Diabetes and Heart Failure Management at the Community Level Diabetes Prevention and Management at the National Level Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Program Planning at the Local Level CVD Strategy at the National Level Models for Exploring Health System Reform Health-Care and Illness Prevention at a Community Level Chronic Illness and Growth of the National Health-Care Economy National Health System Reform Local Health System Reform Future Directions Bibliography System Dynamics Applications to Health and Social Care in the United Kingdom and Europe Glossary Terms Related to System Dynamics Terms Related to Health and Social Care Introduction The History of System Dynamics The Need for System Dynamics The Components of System Dynamics System Dynamics Thinking Skills for the Management of Complex Organizations System Dynamics Modeling Tools for Planning in Complex Organizations Applying System Dynamics with Management Teams An Overview of Health and Social Care in the UK and Europe A Case Study: Using System Dynamics to Influence Health and Social Care Policy Nationally in the UK, Delayed Transfers of Care Issue Proposed Solutions Model Overview Configuration of the Model Example Results from the Delayed Transfers of Care Model Outcomes System Dynamics Studies in Epidemiology System Dynamics Studies in Health and Social Care Management Participative Model Building Future Directions Bibliography Books Primary Literature Reviews and Reports System Dynamics Applications to Public Policy Glossary Definition of the Subject Introduction Medical Malpractice: A System Dynamics and Public Policy Vignette What Is System Dynamics Modeling? Using an SD Model to Develop a Theory Behavior over Time Versus Forecasts An Application of System Dynamics - The Governor´s Office of Regulatory Assistance (GORA) Example How Is System Dynamics Used to Support Public Policy and Management? Make Mental Models of Key Players Explicit Create a Formal and Explicit Theory of the Public Policy Situation Under Discussion Document all Key Parameters and Numbers Supporting the Policy Debate Create a Formal Model that Stimulates and Answers Keywhat if´´ Questions
System Dynamics and Models: A Range of Analytic Scope and Products
What Are the Arenas in Which System Dynamics Models Are Used?
Models Used to Support Inter-Agency and Inter-Governmental Collaborative Efforts
Models Used to Support Expert Testimony in Courtroom Litigation
Models Used as Part of the Legislative Process
Models Used to Inform the Public and Support Public Debate
What Are some of the Substantive Areas Where System Dynamics Has Been Applied?
Health Care
Education
Defense
Environment
General Public Policy
Evaluating the Effectiveness of System Dynamics Models in Supporting the Public Policy Process
Summary: System Dynamics - A Powerful Tool to Support Public Policy
Future Directions
Bibliography
Primary Literature
Books and Reviews
System Dynamics and Operations Management
Glossary
Introduction
Modelling and Simulation in Operations Management
System Dynamics as a Method to Understand Time-Dependent Aspects of Operations Management
Feedback
Accumulation
Delays
Nonlinearity and ``Soft´´ Variables
Computer Simulation
Modelling Process
Applications of System Dynamics in Operations Management
Future Directions
Bibliography
System Dynamics Applied to Project Management: A Survey, Assessment, and Directions for Future Research
Glossary
Context
Structures Underlying Project Dynamics
Project Features
The Rework Cycle
Controlling Feedback
Ripple Effects
Knock-on Effects
Assessment of System Dynamics Project Model Structures and Research Needs
Common Project Behaviors
Applications and Dynamic (Policy) Insights
Summary/Overview
Postmortem Assessments for Disputes and Learning
Project Estimating, Planning, and Risk Assessment
Change Management, Risk Management, and Project Control
Management Training and Education
Discussion and Conclusions
Bibliography
Delay and Disruption in Complex Projects
Glossary
Definition of the Subject
Introduction
Disruption and Delay
What Is a Disruption?
What Is a Delay?
Portfolio Effect of Many Disruptions
Consequences of Disruptions and Delays
Managerial Actions and the Consequences of D&D
Analyzing D&D and Project Behavior
Cascade Model Building Process
Stage 1: Qualitative Cognitive and Cause Map
Stage 2: Cause Map to Influence Diagram
Stage 3: Influence Diagram to System Dynamics Influence Diagram (SDID)
Stage 4: The System Dynamics Simulation Model
Reversing the Cascade
Advantages of the Cascade
Achieving Comprehensiveness
Testing the Veracity of Multiple Perspectives
Modeling Transparency
Common Understanding Across Many Audiences
Clarity
Confidence Building
Implications for Development
Future Directions
Bibliography
System Dynamics Modeling to Inform Defense Strategic Decision-Making
Glossary
Introduction: Scope and Definition of the Subject
Mapping Causal Hypotheses: Qualitative System Dynamics Diagramming Conventions
Qualitative and Quantitative System Dynamics Applied to Defense Problem Analysis
Conflict
Internal and External Threats to Nations
Conflict: Causal Analysis of War in Angola
Conflict: Causal Analysis of War in Afghanistan
Disclaimer Regarding Classified or Sensitive Work
Modeling and Simulation of Force-on-Force Engagements
Dynamic Intuition in Military Command and Control
Defense Capability and Force Structure Analysis
Defense Preparedness Modeling
Readiness
Real World-Preparedness Modeling Challenges
Sustainability
Defense Capital Asset Acquisition
Project Management
Capital Asset Introduction into Service and Maintenance: Helicopter Fleet Upgrade
Helicopter Operations: Crews and Missions
System Dynamics Modeling to Inform Suitability of System Reliability and Performance Targets
Manpower and Career Succession Planning
Generic Structure for Manpower and Career Succession Modeling
Future Work
Bibliography
Primary Literature
Books and Reviews
System Dynamics Models of Environment, Energy, and Climate Change
Glossary
Definition of the Subject
Introduction
The Model of Mono Lake
The Model of the Salmon in the Tucannon River
Models of Climate Change
System Dynamics Models of the Carbon Cycle
Climate Modeling for Decision Support
Lessons from the Regulated Power Industry in the 1970s
Simulating the Power Industry Response to a Carbon Market
Conditions for Effective Interdisciplinary Modeling
Future Directions
Bibliography
Primary Literature
Books and Reviews
System Dynamics and Its Contribution to Economics and Economic Modeling
Glossary
Definition of the Subject and Its Importance
Introduction
Types of Dynamic Simulation
Translating Existing Economic Models into a System Dynamics Format
Delay Structures and Translating Difference Equation Models into a System Dynamics Format
Improving Existing Economic Models with System Dynamics
Creating Economic Dynamics Models from Scratch
Model Validity
Controversies
Future Directions
Bibliography
Primary Literature
Books and Reviews
System Dynamics and Organizational Learning
Glossary
Definition of the Subject
History of System Dynamics
Systems Thinking and Modeling Methodology
Organizational Learning
Personal Mastery
Shared Vision
Mental Model and Leadership
Team Learning and Dialog
How Organizations Learn
The Learning Laboratory
Group Model Building
Managerial Practice Field
Aligning Mental Models Through the Learning Lab
Implications for Management
Future Directions
Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)
Systems Thinking and Sustainability
Bibliography
Primary Literature
Books and Reviews
System Dynamics and Workforce Planning
Glossary
Introduction
The Complexities of Strategic Workforce Planning
What Is Workforce Planning?
Understanding Supply and Demand
Achieving Balance
Planning and Uncertainty
The Workforce Planning Process
Stage 1: Define the Problem
Stage 2: Capture the Current Workforce State
Stage 3: Understand the System
Stage 4: Define the Required Future Workforce
Stage 5: Define the Expected Future Workforce
Stage 6: Identify Challenging Futures
Stage 7: Stress Test Workforce Plans
Stage 8: Decide, Implement, and Revise
System Dynamics to Support Workforce Planning
Mapping the System to Understand Behavior
Simulating the System to Quantify Behavior
Bounding the System Dynamics Model
System Dynamics Tools
Applications of System Dynamics to Workforce Planning
Sector-Based Review of Applications of System Dynamics to Workforce Planning
Health and Social Care
Defense
Information Technology
National Infrastructure Workforces
Other Sectors
Case Study: Applying System Dynamics to National Workforce Planning
Context
Overall Approach to Workforce Planning
The System Dynamics Models
Impact
Future Directions for System Dynamics in Workforce Planning
Bibliography
Primary Literature
Books and Reviews
System Dynamics Analysis of the Diffusion of Innovations
Glossary
Definition of the Subject
Introduction
Principle Structures to Model the Diffusion of Innovations
Traditional Innovation Diffusion Models from a System Dynamics Perspective
Base Structure of a System Dynamics-Based Model of Innovation Diffusion
Extending the Base Structure to Include Competition
Representing Network Externalities
Representing Managerial Decision Making in Innovation Diffusion Models
Dynamic Pricing Without Direct Competition
Linking Manufacturing-Related Decision Variables
Linking R&D and New Product Development
Managerial Implications
Future Directions
Bibliography
Primary Literature
Dynamics of Income Distribution in a Market Economy: Possibilities for Poverty Alleviation
Glossary
Definition of the Subject
Introduction
The Alternative Economic Models and Their Limitations
A System Dynamics Model of Resource Allocation, Production and Entitlements
Replicating Income Distribution Patterns Implicit in Models of Alternative Economic Systems
Replicating the Theoretical Neo-classical System
Creating Worker Capitalism
Appearance of Absentee Ownership
Separation of Ownership from Workers and the Creation of a Marxist System
Creation of a Dualist System
Feedback Loops Underlying Wage and Income Patterns
Possibilities for Poverty Alleviation
Assisting the Poor
Influencing Income Distribution
Facilitation of Innovation and Productivity Improvement
Conclusion
Future Directions
Appendix
Model Description
Behavioral Relationships
Bibliography
Primary Literature
Books and Reviews
Index