Cover......Page 1
Surviving 1000 Centuries: Can We Do It?......Page 4
9780387746333......Page 5
Contents......Page 6
List of Illustrations
......Page 12
Foreword
......Page 16
Preface
......Page 18
Acknowledgments
......Page 20
1.1 Why a hundred thousand years ?
......Page 22
1.2 People and resources
......Page 26
1.3 Management and cooperarion
......Page 28
1.4 The overall plan of the book
......Page 30
1.5 Notes and references
......Page 32
2.1 The age of the Earth
......Page 34
2.2 Geological timescales
......Page 37
2.3 The formation of the Moon and the Late Heavy Bombardment
......Page 39
2.4.1 Continents
......Page 44
2.4.2 Plate tectonics
......Page 45
2.4.3 The Earth's magnetic field
......Page 49
2.5 Evolution of the Earth's atmosphere......Page 52
2.6.1 The early fossils in the Archean
......Page 56
2.6.2 The Proterozoic and the apparition of oxygen
......Page 58
2.6.3 The Neo-Proterozoic: the Ediacarans and the 'snowball earth'
......Page 59
2.6.4 The Phanerozoic, life extinctions
......Page 64
2.8 Notes and references
......Page 69
3.1 Introduction
......Page 74
3.2 Galactic hazards
......Page 75
3.2.2 Encounters with interstellar clouds and stars
......Page 78
3.2.3 Supernovae explosions, UV radiation and cosmic rays
......Page 80
3.2.4 Gamma-ray bursts and magnetars
......Page 81
3.3.1 Past tracks of violence
......Page 83
3.3.2 The nature of the impactors: asteroids and comets
......Page 87
3.3.3 Estimating the danger
......Page 94
3.3.4 The bombardment continues
......Page 97
3.3.6 Deviation from the dangerous path
......Page 101
3.3.7 Decision making
......Page 105
3.3.8 Space debris
......Page 106
3.5 Notes and references
......Page 110
4.1 Introduction
......Page 114
4.2 Diseases
......Page 116
4.2.1 How old shall we be in 1,000 centuries?
......Page 119
4.2.2 How tall shall we be in 1,000 centuries ?
......Page 121
4.3.1 Volcanoes and tectonic activity
......Page 123
4.3.2 The destructive power of volcanoes
......Page 127
4.3.3 Volcanoes and climate change
......Page 130
4.3.4 Forecasting eruptions
......Page 133
4.4 Seismic hazards: the threat of earthquakes
......Page 136
4.4.1 Measuring the power of earthquakes
......Page 140
4.4.2 Earthquake forecasting
......Page 141
4.5.1 What are they ?
......Page 146
4.5.2 The 26 December 2004 tsunami
......Page 148
4.5.3 Forecasting tsunamis and mitigation approaches
......Page 149
4.6.1 Storms: cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons, ect.
......Page 153
4.6.2 Floods
......Page 158
4.6.3 Droughts
......Page 163
4.7 Conclusion
......Page 167
4.8 Notes and references
......Page 169
5.1 Miscellaneous evidence of climate change
......Page 174
5.2 The global climate system
......Page 177
5.3 Climates in the distant past
......Page 181
5.4 The recent ice ages
......Page 184
5.5 Recent climate
......Page 192
5.6 Changes in the Sun
......Page 195
5.7 Volcanic eruptions
......Page 197
5.8 Anthropogenic CO2
......Page 198
5.9 Interpretation of the recent record
......Page 199
5.10 The ozone hole
......Page 200
5.11 Notes and references
......Page 203
6 Climate Futures
......Page 208
6.1 Scenarios for future climates
......Page 209
6.2 Geographic distribution of warming
......Page 215
6.3 Sea level
......Page 218
6.4 The 100,000-year climate future......Page 222
6.5 Doubts
......Page 226
6.6 Consequences of climate change
......Page 227
6.7.1 The four main SRES scenarios
......Page 228
6.8 Notes and references
......Page 230
7.1 Energy for 100,000 years
......Page 234
7.1.1 Energy requirements for the 100,000-year world
......Page 236
7.1.2 Minor energy source for the long-term future
......Page 238
7.1.3 Wind energy
......Page 240
7.1.4 Solar energy
......Page 242
7.1.5 Biofuels
......Page 244
7.1.6 Nuclear energy
......Page 246
7.1.7 Fusion energy
......Page 249
7.2.1 Fossil carbon fuels
......Page 253
7.2.3 From now to then
......Page 257
7.3.1 Abundances and formation of the elements
......Page 259
7.3.2 The composition of the Earth
......Page 262
7.3.3 Mineral resources
......Page 263
7.3.4 The present outlook
......Page 265
7.3.5 Mineral resources for 100,000 years
......Page 266
7.5 Notes and references
......Page 271
8.1 Water
......Page 274
8.1.1 The water cycle
......Page 275
8.1.2 Water use and water stress
......Page 276
8.1.3 Remedial measures
......Page 278
8.1.4 Water for 100,000 years
......Page 281
8.1.5 From now to then: water and climate change
......Page 283
8.2.1 Increasing productivity
......Page 284
8.2.2 Present and past land use
......Page 286
8.2.4 Agricultural land and production
......Page 287
8.2.6 Fertilizers and pesticides
......Page 288
8.2.7 Top soil
......Page 289
8.2.8 Agriculture for 100,000 years
......Page 290
8.3 Forests and wilderness
......Page 292
8.3.1 Deforestation
......Page 294
8.5 Notes and references
......Page 297
9.1 Introduction
......Page 302
9.2 Where to go ?
......Page 303
9.2.1 The case of Venus
......Page 305
9.2.2 The case of Mars
......Page 309
9.2.3 Other worlds
......Page 315
9.2.4 Interrtellar travel
......Page 318
9.2.5 Space cities?
......Page 320
9.3 What to do with the Moon?
......Page 321
9.3.1 The Lunar Space Station
......Page 322
9.3.2 The Moon as a scientific base
......Page 323
9.3.3 The Moon for non-scientific exploitation
......Page 324
9.3.4 Resources from outside the Earth-Moon system: planets and asteroids
......Page 327
9.4.1 Absorbing or storing CO2
......Page 329
9.4.2 Cooling down the Earth
......Page 330
9.6 Notes and references
......Page 332
10.1 Introduction
......Page 336
10. 2.1 The Earth's Interior
......Page 337
10.2.2 Water: the hydrosphere and the cryosphere
......Page 340
10.2.3 The atmosphere
......Page 344
10.2.4 The biosphere
......Page 348
10.3 The tools and methods of space
......Page 350
10.3.1 The best orbits for Earth observation
......Page 351
10.3.2 Geodesy and altimetry satellites: measuring the shapes of the Earth
......Page 352
10.3.3 Global Positioning Systems
......Page 358
10.3.4 Synthetic Aperture Radars
......Page 360
10.3.5 Optical imaging
......Page 368
10.3.6 Remote-sensing spectroscopy
......Page 371
10.3.7 Radiometry
......Page 375
10.3.8 Monitoring astronomical and solar influences
......Page 378
10.4 Conclusion
......Page 383
10.5 Notes and references
......Page 384
11.1 Introduction
......Page 388
11.2.1 Forecasting the weather: the 'easy' case
......Page 389
11.2.2 The scientific alert phase: the example of the IPCC
......Page 393
11.2.3 Organizing the space tools......Page 397
11.3.1 The crucial role of the United States, China and India
......Page 402
11.3.2 A perspective view on the political perception
......Page 405
11.3.3 The emotional perception: the scene is moving
......Page 414
11.4 Conclusion: towards world ecoligical governance?
......Page 418
11.5 Notes and references
......Page 420
12.1 Limiting population growth
......Page 424
12.2 Stabilizing global warming
......Page 426
12.3 The limits of vessel-Earth
......Page 427
12.4 The crucial role of education and science
......Page 428
12.5 New governance required
......Page 429
12.6 The difficult and urgent transition phase
......Page 431
12.7 Adapting to as static society
......Page 432
12.8 Notes and references
......Page 434
Index
......Page 436
