"This book presents a broad ranging view of subjective probability. Chapters range from the discussions of the philosophy of axiom systems through to studies in the psychological laboratory and then to the real world of business decision-making.
Topics covered include subjective probability in statistical inference and expert systems, the treatment of causality in laboratory studies and in scenario planning, whether Man is a Bayesian thinker or a frequentist thinker, descriptive and normative theories of subjective probability, confidence and performance, and subjective probability in gambling and court-room decisions โ a wide range of topics. Nevertheless, underpinning all the topics and approaches is a fundamental desire, on the part of the authors, to analyse and document the human ability to deal with uncertainty โ no easy task. The multidisciplinary nature of this volume โ which includes authorities who are psychologists, philosophers, statisticians, management scientists, educationalists, and corporate planners โ illustrates the essentially human challenge of this enormous project.
The book is organized into four major parts. The first, Background, provides the philosophical and statistical foundations. The second, Studies in the Psychological Laboratory, overviews theory and research in cognitive and developmental psychology. The third, Accuracy of Probability Judgements, focuses on theories and models that allow assessment of the quality of assessed probabilities. The fourth, Real World Studies, reviews subjective probability judgement in situations that have material consequences for the decision-makers."