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Study on probability distribution of prices in electricity market: A case study of zhejiang province, china

✍ Scribed by H. Zhou; B. Chen; Z.X. Han; F.Q. Zhang


Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2009
Tongue
English
Weight
525 KB
Volume
14
Category
Article
ISSN
1007-5704

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✦ Synopsis


The study on probability density function and distribution function of electricity prices contributes to the power suppliers and purchasers to estimate their own management accurately, and helps the regulator monitor the periods deviating from normal distribution. Based on the assumption of normal distribution load and non-linear characteristic of the aggregate supply curve, this paper has derived the distribution of electricity prices as the function of random variable of load. The conclusion has been validated with the electricity price data of Zhejiang market. The results show that electricity prices obey normal distribution approximately only when supply-demand relationship is loose, whereas the prices deviate from normal distribution and present strong right-skewness characteristic. Finally, the real electricity markets also display the narrow-peak characteristic when undersupply occurs.


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