Strategic Economic Decision-Making: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Solve Complex Problems

✍ Scribed by Jeff Grover (auth.)

• Publisher: Springer-Verlag New York
• Year: 2013
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 121
• Series: SpringerBriefs in Statistics 9
• Edition: 1
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

Strategic Economic Decision-Making: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Solve Complex Problems is a quick primer on the topic that introduces readers to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes’ theory and inverse probability for the first time. This brief is meant for non-statisticians who are unfamiliar with Bayes’ theorem, walking them through the theoretical phases of set and sample set selection, the axioms of probability, probability theory as it pertains to Bayes’ theorem, and posterior probabilities. All of these concepts are explained as they appear in the methodology of fitting a Bayes’ model, and upon completion of the text readers will be able to mathematically determine posterior probabilities of multiple independent nodes across any system available for study. Very little has been published in the area of discrete Bayes’ theory, and this brief will appeal to non-statisticians conducting research in the fields of engineering, computing, life sciences, and social sciences.

✦ Table of Contents

Front Matter....Pages i-xi
An Introduction to Bayes’ Theorem and Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)....Pages 1-9
A Literature Review of Bayes’ Theorem and Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)....Pages 11-27
Statistical Properties of Bayes’ Theorem....Pages 29-42
Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) Experimental Protocol....Pages 43-48
Manufacturing Example....Pages 49-54
Political Science Example....Pages 55-59
Gambling Example....Pages 61-65
Publicly Traded Company Default Example....Pages 67-72
Insurance Risk Levels Example....Pages 73-78
Acts of Terrorism (AOT) Example....Pages 79-84
Currency Wars Example....Pages 85-90
College Entrance Exams Example....Pages 91-95
Special Forces Assessment and Selection (SFAS) One-Stage Example....Pages 97-102
Special Forces Assessment and Selection (SFAS) Two-Stage Example....Pages 103-113
Back Matter....Pages 115-116

✦ Subjects

Statistics, general; Statistics for Social Science, Behavorial Science, Education, Public Policy, and Law; Statistical Theory and Methods