STOCHASTIC MATRICES APPLIED TO THE PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF RUNOFF EVENTS IN A SEMI-ARID STREAM
✍ Scribed by C. CONESA-GARCÍA; F. ALONSO-SARRIÁ
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1997
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 223 KB
- Volume
- 11
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0885-6087
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✦ Synopsis
Stochastic models oer an objective and quantitative method of analysing the behaviour of discrete hydrological variables. For the Algeciras semi-arid stream in south-east Spain, homogeneous ®rst-and second-order Markov chains were applied to rainfall and runo series in order to establish the length of the rainy sequences using probability as well as the beginning and duration of runo. At the same time, a stochastic process was devised based on two subsystems, one for rainfall, modelled as a four-state n-order Markov chain, and another for transition of runo depending on the former subsystem. By considering the median rainfall obtained in each season as a class threshold, the possible number of states in the ®rst subsystem is raised to nine, giving more complicated stochastic matrices which, without using an excessive number of parameters, allow better description and prediction of the transition from rainfall to runo.