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Stochastic Epidemic Models and Their Statistical Analysis

✍ Scribed by Håkan Andersson, Tom Britton (auth.)


Publisher
Springer-Verlag New York
Year
2000
Tongue
English
Leaves
139
Series
Lecture Notes in Statistics 151
Edition
1
Category
Library

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✦ Synopsis


The present lecture notes describe stochastic epidemic models and methods for their statistical analysis. Our aim is to present ideas for such models, and methods for their analysis; along the way we make practical use of several probabilistic and statistical techniques. This will be done without focusing on any specific disease, and instead rigorously analyzing rather simple models. The reader of these lecture notes could thus have a two-fold purpose in mind: to learn about epidemic models and their statistical analysis, and/or to learn and apply techniques in probability and statistics. The lecture notes require an early graduate level knowledge of probability and They introduce several techniques which might be new to students, but our statistics. intention is to present these keeping the technical level at a minlmum. Techniques that are explained and applied in the lecture notes are, for example: coupling, diffusion approximation, random graphs, likelihood theory for counting processes, martingales, the EM-algorithm and MCMC methods. The aim is to introduce and apply these techniques, thus hopefully motivating their further theoretical treatment. A few sections, mainly in Chapter 5, assume some knowledge of weak convergence; we hope that readers not familiar with this theory can understand the these parts at a heuristic level. The text is divided into two distinct but related parts: modelling and estimation.

✦ Table of Contents


Front Matter....Pages i-ix
Front Matter....Pages 1-2
Introduction....Pages 3-9
The standard SIR epidemic model....Pages 11-18
Coupling methods....Pages 19-26
The threshold limit theorem....Pages 27-37
Density dependent jump Markov processes....Pages 39-49
Multitype epidemics....Pages 51-61
Epidemics and graphs....Pages 63-72
Models for endemic diseases....Pages 73-83
Front Matter....Pages 85-86
Complete observation of the epidemic process....Pages 87-97
Estimation in partially observed epidemics....Pages 99-106
Markov Chain Monte Carlo....Pages 107-115
Vaccination....Pages 117-125
Back Matter....Pages 127-140

✦ Subjects


Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences


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