%'or the piir1)ose of this pnpcr Industry iiiiiy be tlivitlctl into tlircc sections : ( 1 ) h y i n g ; (2) Mnniifncturc ; aiid (3) Selling. As evcry piirclinse involves ii sale, tlic first iiiid third scctioiis riiny I)c cotisidcrctl togcthcr, tlic oiic hitip n iiiirror itiiiige of t,lie other.
-4s seztioiis oiic atid three nrc sevcr:illy zit lcnst ns iiiiportnnt ns sectioti two, n i i d collectivcly arc of iiiorc oonaeq~icncc, t i n y stii tist,icnl information which aids efficient buying iiiitl sclliiip is of jkmniourit iiiiportnncc.
Could not cfliciciit h y i n g bc tlcfiiied as sclectiiig tliiit, l1iolnciit, for buying wlicii the iiinrkct is tit its lo\-est, illid piirchnsiiig sufticicnt qiiiititities to siifficc until the upwiird trend is Imsctl niirl t h e pricc is iigiiiii i i t its lowest ? !Clic mirror imnge of t,Iiis, ns tlcfining ellicieiit selling, niight be rcgnrdcrl ns sclccting that iiloiiiciit when the iiigirkct is liiglicst iiiid iinloading tlic greatest niiioiiiit possible of goods tit tliiit pricc.
To lie nblc t.0 iiicct tlic coiiditioiis of these tlcfinitioiis it is iieccswry to kiiow, 11s fnr ns possible iii ntlviincc, tlic prospects of supply iriitl tlciiiniici for the goods conceriictl, !)otli as raw iiintcriiil iiiid completed article. TIint is to siiy, oiie slioirlil be iu ii positioii to forecast wlint is iiboiit t o Iiiip~~cii iii iiitlristry.
lrude forcciisting tiiiglit bc tlivitlecl into t w o scctioiis : ( I ) Long terai forcciists, sncli ns those qiplyiiig to the csliiiustioii of ti:ititr:il ~'cso~irccs likc coiil or food ; tlicsc iirc usually uiiplciisiitit propliccies iiiitl iirc gciicrnlly t,lioroilglily iiiireliiil)lc, but l i n w tlic iitlviiiitiigc to tlic proplict t,liiit Iic is tlcntl before lie ciiii bc rcpiitliiitctl. 'Vlic second scctioti tiiiglit be coiisitlcrctl :is coiiiposec'l of ( ( 1 ) trntlc cyclcs iiiitl (6) short tcriii forecnstiiig ciflectiiig i iiimetliatc rcq 11 irciiicii ts.
As tlic one iiifliiciiccs tlic otlicr, iintl tlicrc is no slinrp line dividing t h i i , thcy will bc coiisidercrl, togctlicr.
Trntlc cyclcs tire rliytliiiiic fluctuntiotis iii wliicli tlic getiernl I c \ d of prices riscs for II priotl of fears, rcnclies i i miisitiiuiii, dies tloivii, rcnclics t i iiiiiiiniuiii, iiiitl starts i i l l over q i i i i i , t i i i t l , of coiirsc, Iinvc ciioriiioiis iiifliiciicc on triitlc by iiicrciisiiip o r rctluciiig tlic piircliiisiiig power of tlic coiniiiuriity.
If it \verc possilh to 1)rctlict tlic st.iirt of tlic risc of tlic tmtle cycle, tlicii cliicieiit buying \-odd bc mucli siiiiplificd : iigaiiii, it \voultl be estrciiiely viiluiiblc tu laiow wlieii the 1)ciiI; of tlic cycle Iind bccii iittiiiiiecl.
Xcltortlinp to Sir Williiiiii Jlcvcritlgc, iiltliougli this rhytliiiiic iiioyciiiciit is ooiiiiiion to ti11 iitlvniioctl iiitlustritil c:oiiritries, yet the iiiovciiiciit, tliougli rliytliniicnl, is cliiitc irrcynliir i i i Iciigtli.
Tlic tiiiic recliiircil for triitle to piss through 1111 the pliiiscs of tlic 11l*111 Ill C11Y sl~ll.:lvv 311111~11111, l,(llldl111, 011 1)UC. 0, IU?U. ,. * I ' q i w riwl h i t w I 111-11i.tltiit111i1 o i i'l~iwI~*iil I:iigliiww lit t 111. ('ottfiwiil~c cycle-tlcprcssioii, re\ivnl, prosperity, strniii or crisis, liqiiidritioii, to tlcpressioii again-inny 1)c as little :is sis years or 11s inucli ns clcvcn. In csccptioiinl cnscs t h e