Statistical Analysis of Climate Extremes

✍ Scribed by Manfred Mudelsee

• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Year: 2020
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 213
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

The risks posed by climate change and its effect on climate extremes are an increasingly pressing societal problem. This book provides an accessible overview of the statistical analysis methods which can be used to investigate climate extremes and analyse potential risk. The statistical analysis methods are illustrated with case studies on extremes in the three major climate variables: temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. The book also provides datasets and access to appropriate analysis software, allowing the reader to replicate the case study calculations. Providing the necessary tools to analyse climate risk, this book is invaluable for students and researchers working in the climate sciences, as well as risk analysts interested in climate extremes.

✦ Table of Contents

Contents
Preface
1 Introduction
Reading Material
2 Data
2.1 Event Times
2.1.1 Elbe Winter Floods
2.2 Peaks Over Threshold
2.2.1 Potsdam Wind Speed
2.3 Block Extremes
2.4 Detection of Extremes
2.4.1 Threshold Placement
2.4.2 Block Length Selection
Exercises
Reading Material
3 Methods
3.1 Stationary Processes
3.1.1 GEV Distribution
3.1.2 GP Distribution
3.1.3 Return Level, Return Period, and Risk
3.1.4 Heavy-Tail Distributions
3.2 Nonstationary Poisson Process
3.2.1 Kernel Occurrence Rate Estimation
3.2.2 Bandwidth Selection
3.2.3 Boundary Bias Correction
3.2.4 Confidence Band Construction
3.2.5 Cox–Lewis Test
Exercises
Reading Material
4 Floods and Droughts
4.1 Case Study: Elbe Floods
4.1.1 Data Quality
4.1.2 Reservoirs
4.1.3 Further River Training
4.1.4 Land Use
4.1.5 Climate
4.2 Case Study: Monsoon Droughts
4.2.1 Detection
4.2.2 Occurrence Rate Estimation
4.3 Outlook
4.4 Summary for the Risk Analyst
Reading Material
5 Heatwaves and Cold Spells
5.1 Indices
5.2 Case Study: European Heatwaves
5.2.1 Action Measures
5.2.2 Occurrence Rate Estimation
5.2.3 Other Measures
5.2.4 Absolute versus Calendar Day Percentiles
5.3 Case Study: Cold Spells at Potsdam
5.3.1 Late Frost
5.4 Outlook
5.5 Summary for the Risk Analyst
Reading Material
6 Hurricanes and Other Storms
6.1 Case Study: US Landfalling Hurricanes
6.1.1 Database
6.1.2 Risk Analysis
6.1.3 Sensitivity Analysis
6.2 Case Study: Paleo Hurricanes
6.2.1 Occurrence Rate Estimation
6.3 Case Study: Storms at Potsdam
6.3.1 Stationarity
6.3.2 Nonstationarity
6.4 Outlook
6.5 Summary for the Risk Analyst
Reading Material
Appendix A Climate Measurements
A.1 Temperature
A.2 Precipitation
A.3 Wind Speed
Reading Material
Appendix B Natural Climate Archives
B.1 Speleothems
B.2 Lake Sediment Cores
B.3 Tree-Rings
B.4 Other Natural Archives
B.5 Dating of Natural Archives
Reading Material
Appendix C Physical Climate Models
C.1 Earth System Models
C.2 Uncertainties and Model–Data Comparisons
Reading Material
Appendix D Statistical Inference
D.1 Estimation
D.1.1 Mean and Standard Deviation, Standardization
D.1.2 Linear Regression
D.1.3 Nonlinear Regression
D.1.4 Monte Carlo Experiments
D.2 Hypothesis Tests
Reading Material
Appendix E Numerical Techniques
E.1 Optimization
E.2 Parallel Computing
E.3 Random Numbers
Reading Material
Appendix F Data and Software
F.1 Data
F.2 Software
Appendix G List of Symbols and Abbreviations
References
Index