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State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis

✍ Scribed by Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson (auth.)


Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Year
2002
Tongue
English
Leaves
432
Series
The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis
Edition
1
Category
Library

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✦ Synopsis


The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.

✦ Table of Contents


Introduction....Pages 1-17
Fundamentals of Population Analysis....Pages 19-42
Overview of the Cohort-Component Method....Pages 43-48
Mortality....Pages 49-72
Fertility....Pages 73-96
Migration....Pages 97-135
Implementing the Cohort-Component Method....Pages 137-160
Trend Extrapolation Methods....Pages 161-183
Structural Models I....Pages 185-214
Structural Models II....Pages 215-237
Special Adjustments....Pages 239-277
Evaluating Projections....Pages 279-299
Forecast Accuracy and Bias....Pages 301-341
A Practical Guide to Small-Area Projections....Pages 343-360
New Directions in Population Projection Research....Pages 361-375

✦ Subjects


Demography; Sociology; Population Economics; Statistics, general; Public Health/Gesundheitswesen


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