Space-Time Modeling of Macroeconomic Development
Modelage Espace-Temps d'un D6veloppement Maerobxmomique Raum-Zeit-Modellierung der makro6konomisehen Entwieklung ]-[pocTpaHCTeeHHOe BpeMeHI-IOe MO)Ie0aHpOBaHHe pa3nnTH~ MaIq303I~OHOMHI~ SAKARI TAPANI JUTILA* A 'geography' in terms of a spatial structure and/or respective location variables may be incorporated into spatial macroeconomic development models to portray such processes as continental economic development, urbanization, agricultural development and population dynamics.
SHmamry--This article deals with space-time modeling of macroeconomic development or theory of spatial macroeconomic development (SMED). The theory of SMED is a new branch of economics, and it is reviewed here in terms of several published articles. The purpose of SMED is to provide a better accounting and understanding of such processes as urbaniTation, agricultural development of hinterlands, and spreading of population along easy paths of transporation. In general, SMED deals with growth and spreading of economic activity over space and time. Therefore, space is treated as a basic scarce resource over which economic activity develops through efforts of production, consumption, transportation and migration. In this presentatiun, the examples of SMED processes are discussed in terms of simple linear models. It is pointed out that such models can be generalized in several different directions in order to treat, for example, spatially inhomogeneous and nonisotropic cases, temporally nonlinear and stochastic cases with distributed lags, and cases with certain important limits to growth. SMED models can be formulated, also, as optimiTAtion and control system problems with potentially important implication for public policies for processes of economic development.