Some techniques in building and validating stochastic models of human reproduction

✍ Scribed by Charles J. Mode

• Book ID: 104272216
• Publisher: Springer
• Year: 1977
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 650 KB
• Volume: 39
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 1522-9602
• DOI: 10.1016/s0092-8240(77)80049-9

✦ Synopsis

Stochasuc models of human reproduction are beginning to play significant roles in the evaluation of family planning programs. A class of stochastic processes called absorbing, agedependent, semi-Markov processes frequently arises in the construction of such models. The paper begins with a discussion of some techmcalities regarding absorbing, age-dependent, semi-Markov processes. Then, an algorithm due to Llttman, which makes possible the computerization of this class of stochastic processes, ~s presented. Briefly, Llttman's algorithm provides an efficient method for numerically solving systems of renewal type integral equations, provided the system does not contain a large number of equations. After setting down a concrete model for a large climcal trial of intrauterine devices conducted in Taiwan, the paper concludes with a discussion of a method for valid atin g the model based on the data collected in the clinical trial.