Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the ipcc on global warming
✍ Scribed by P. Laut; J. Gundermann
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 1998
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 421 KB
- Volume
- 60
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 1364-6826
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✦ Synopsis
Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 0!1!1!1!0 _ltered solar cycle lengths and the 00!year running average of northern hemisphere land air temperatures\ there have been widespread speculations as to whether these _ndings would rule out any signi_cant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases[ The {solar hypothesis| "as we shall term this assumption# claims that solar activity causes a signi_cant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the _ltered solar cycle lengths[ In an earlier article we have demonstrated that for data covering the period 0759Ð0879 the solar hypothesis does not rule out any signi_cant contribution from man!made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols[ The present analysis goes a step further[ We analyse the period 0468Ð0876 and _nd that the solar hypothesis*instead of contradicting*appears to support the assumption of a signi_cant warming due to human activities[ We have tentatively {corrected| the historical northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies by removing the assumed e}ects of human activities[ These are represented by northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies calculated as the contributions from man!made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols by using an upwelling di}usion!energy balance model similar to the model of Wigley and Raper "0882# employed in the Second Assessment Report of The Interovernmental Panel on Climate Chane "IPCC#[ It turns out that the agreement of the _ltered solar cycle lengths with the {corrected| temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies\ with the mean square deviation reduced by 25) for a climate sensitivity of 1[4>C\ the central value of the IPCC assessment\ and by 32) for the best!_t value of 0[6>C[ Therefore our _ndings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a veri_cation of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man!made global warming[ Þ 0888 Elsevier Science Ltd[ All rights reserved[ Keywords] Solar cycle lengths^Solar activity^Sunspot numbers^Global warming^Greenhouse gases^Upwelling di}usion!energy balance model^IPCC