✦ LIBER ✦

SOI PHASES AND CLIMATIC RISK TO PEANUT PRODUCTION: A CASE STUDY FOR NORTHERN AUSTRALIA

✍ Scribed by MEINKE, H.; STONE, R. C.; HAMMER, G. L.

Book ID: 102648102
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1996
Tongue: English
Weight: 563 KB
Volume: 16
Category: Article
ISSN: 0899-8418
DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(199607)16:7<783::aid-joc58>3.0.co;2-d

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in AugusdSeptember are used in conjunction with a dynamic peanut simulation model to quantify climatic risk to peanut production in northern Australia. Specifically, we demonstrate how a simulation model can assist to forward estimate production risk based on historic climate records and h o w n atmospheric conditions prior to planting a crop. The SO1 phase analysis provides skill in assessing future rainfall probability distributions during the growing season and thus allows an estimate of likely crop performance. Such knowledge can provide valuable information for producers and processors. For instance, the analysis shows that for negative SO1 patterns prior to sowing the expected median yield potential for dryland peanut production in northern Australia is 1.25 t ha; ' or 27 per cent below the long-term median. Conversely, a positive SO1 pattern shows a median potential yield of 2.1 1 t ha-, an increase of 23 per cent over the long-term median. Other production variables, such as date and frequency of planting opportunities, also differ significantly depending on SO1 patterns.

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