𝔖 Bobbio Scriptorium
✦   LIBER   ✦

Simulation and estimation of probabilities of phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

✍ Scribed by Nicholas Nairn-Birch; David Diez; Esa Eslami; Marc Macias Fauria; Edward A. Johnson; Frederic Paik Schoenberg


Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2011
Tongue
English
Weight
491 KB
Volume
22
Category
Article
ISSN
1180-4009

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis


The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index defines the leading mode of monthly sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean. Time series analysis in both the frequency and time domains is applied to 107 years of monthly PDO index values. Simulations of a model fitted to the data are used to estimate p-values associated with particular events observed in the raw data. The simulations are further used to estimate the distribution of various quantities, such as the length (in years) of a positive phase, or the absolute difference between the longest positive and negative phase (in years). The results show that the probability of occurrence of a negative phase surrounded by two positive phases within a 107-year period is approximately 9.9%. The raw data's mean positive phase length is close to the simulation mean and median, while the absolute difference in maximum positive/negative phase lengths corresponds to a p-value of 14.9%. The methodology developed in this paper can be useful to ecologists in assessing the potential ecological effects due to PDO variation, and for estimating the probabilities associated with future phases or other events.


📜 SIMILAR VOLUMES


Influence of Pacific decadal oscillation
✍ Shouraseni Sen Roy; N. Sen Roy 📂 Article 📅 2010 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 320 KB

## Abstract In the present study, we have examined the influence of two major teleconnections, namely, El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the summer monsoon precipitation of Myanmar. We used 52 years (1951–2002) of monthly precipitation data from a high‐res

Influences of the El Niño Southern Oscil
✍ Gregory J. McCabe; Toby R. Ault; Benjamin I. Cook; Julio L. Betancourt; Mark D. 📂 Article 📅 2011 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 457 KB

## Abstract Detrended, modelled first leaf dates for 856 sites across North America for the period 1900–2008 are used to examine how the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) separately and together might influence the timing of spring. Although spring (mean

Relations of South American summer rainf
✍ Mary T. Kayano; Rita V. Andreoli 📂 Article 📅 2007 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 785 KB

## Abstract The anomaly patterns of rainfall in South America for El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme conditions stratified according to the high, low, and normal Pacific (inter‐) Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phases (HPDO, LPDO and NPDO) are examined for the three bi‐months of the season from