Several points of disagreement exist between different modelling traditions as to whether complex models are always better than simpler models, as to how to combine results from different models and how to propagate model uncertainty into forecasts. This book represents the result of collaboration between scientists from many disciplines to show how these conflicts can be resolved.
Key Features:
- Introduces important concepts in modelling, outlining different traditions in the use of simple and complex modelling in statistics.
- Provides numerous case studies on complex modelling, such as climate change, flood risk and new drug development.
- Concentrates on varying models, including flood risk analysis models, the petrol industry forecasts and summarizes the evolution of water distribution systems.
- Written by experienced statisticians and engineers in order to facilitate communication between modellers in different disciplines.
- Provides a glossary giving terms commonly used in different modelling traditions.
This book provides a much-needed reference guide to approaching statistical modelling. Scientists involved with modelling complex systems in areas such as climate change, flood prediction and prevention, financial market modelling and systems engineering will benefit from this book. It will also be a useful source of modelling case histories.
Content:
Chapter 1 Introduction (pages 1โ9): Mike Christie, Andrew Cliffe, Philip Dawid and Stephen Senn
Chapter 2 Statistical Model Selection (pages 11โ33): Philip Dawid and Stephen Senn
Chapter 3 Modelling in Drug Development (pages 35โ49): Stephen Senn
Chapter 4 Modelling with Deterministic Computer Models (pages 51โ67): Jeremy E. Oakley
Chapter 5 Modelling Future Climates (pages 69โ81): Peter Challenor and Robin Tokmakian
Chapter 6 Modelling Climate Change Impacts for Adaptation Assessments (pages 83โ102): Suraje Dessai and Jeroen van der Sluijs
Chapter 7 Modelling in Water Distribution Systems (pages 103โ124): Zoran Kapelan
Chapter 8 Modelling for Flood Risk Management (pages 125โ146): Jim Hall
Chapter 9 Uncertainty Quantification and Oil Reservoir Modelling (pages 147โ172): Mike Christie
Chapter 10 Modelling in Radioactive Waste Disposal (pages 173โ185): Andrew Cliffe
Chapter 11 Issues for Modellers (pages 187โ192): Mike Christie, Andrew Cliffe, Philip Dawid and Stephen Senn