Short term load forecasting in electric power systems: A comparison of ARMA models and extended wiener filtering
✍ Scribed by U. Di Caprio; R. Genesio; S. Pozzi; A. Vicino
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1983
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 910 KB
- Volume
- 2
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0277-6693
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✦ Synopsis
On-line prediction of electric load in the buses of the EHV grid of a power generation and transmission system is basic information required by on-line procedures for centralized advanced dispatching of power generation.
This paper presents two alternative approaches to on-line short term forecasting of the residual component of the load obtained after the removal of the base load from a time series of total load. The first approach involves the use of stochastic ARMA models with time-varying coefficients. The second consists in the use of an extension of Wiener filtering due to Zadeh and Ragazzini.
Real data representing a load process measured in an area of Northern Italy and simulated data reproducing a non-stationary process with known characteristics constitute the basis of a numerical comparison allowing one to determine under which conditions each method is more appropriate.