Seasonal forecasting of South African rainfall using a non-linear discriminant analysis model

✍ Scribed by Mason, S. J.

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 1998
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 481 KB
• Volume: 18
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0899-8418
• DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0088(199802)18:2<147::aid-joc229>3.0.co;2-6

✦ Synopsis

Statistical models have been used to provide operational seasonal forecasts of rainfall over southern Africa since 1992. The Climatology Research Group has been using a quadratic discriminant analysis model since November 1994. The model relates rainfall over different areas of South Africa to principal components of sea-surface temperatures in the Indian, South Atlantic and Paci®c Oceans. Details of the model are described in this paper. High forecast-skill levels can be achieved for much of the country throughout the year. The mostly successful performance of the model over a 15-year independent testing period indicates that the model can be used successfully in an operational environment.