Risk Communication: A Mental Models Approach

✍ Scribed by M. Granger Morgan, Baruch Fischhoff, Ann Bostrom, Cynthia J. Atman

• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Year: 2001
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 367
• Edition: 1
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

This book explains how to develop more effective risk communications using the Carnegie Mellon mental-model approach. Such communications are designed to contain, in readily usable form, the information that people need to make informed decisions about risks to health, safety, and the environment. The approach draws together methods from the natural and social sciences, providing a framework for interdisciplinary collaboration. It is demostrated with varied examples including electromagnetic fields, climate change, radon, and sexually transmitted diseases.

✦ Table of Contents

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
CONTENTS......Page 7
PREFACE......Page 11
1.1 The Context of Risk Communication......Page 17
1.2 The Goals of Risk Communication......Page 19
1.3 The Goals of Communication Recipients......Page 21
1.4 Criticisms of Risk Communication......Page 23
1.5 How People Think about Risk and Uncertainty......Page 26
1.6 What Kinds of Communications Are We Considering?......Page 30
References......Page 32
2.1 The Need for a Systematic Approach......Page 35
2.2 The Mental Models Metaphor......Page 37
2.3 Constructing the Influence Diagram......Page 38
2.4 Eliciting Mental Models......Page 39
2.5 The Value of Open-Ended Interviews......Page 41
2.6 The Cost of Open-Ended Interviews......Page 42
2.7 Confirmatory Questionnaires......Page 43
2.8 Creating Communications......Page 44
2.9 More Testing......Page 45
2.10 Is It Worth It?......Page 46
References......Page 47
3 CREATING AN EXPERT MODEL OF THE RISK......Page 50
3.1 Influence Diagrams......Page 51
3.2 Strategies for Creating Influence Diagrams......Page 58
3.3 Examples of Influence Diagrams......Page 64
3.4 Summary......Page 74
References......Page 77
4.1.1 Strategy......Page 79
4.1.2 Design Details: A Radon Example......Page 81
4.2.1 Strategy......Page 86
4.2.3 Sample Participants......Page 90
4.2.4 Sample Size......Page 92
4.3 Picture Sorting......Page 94
4.4 Summarizing, Analyzing, and Interpreting the Results......Page 95
References......Page 98
5.1 Objectives of Questionnaire Studies......Page 100
5.2 Designing and Testing Confirmatory Questionnaires......Page 102
5.3 Conducting and Analyzing the Study......Page 108
References......Page 111
6.1 Principles......Page 113
6.1.2 Choosing Message Content: A Radon Example......Page 114
6.2 Building Messages from Users’ Decision Needs and Mental Models Results......Page 116
6.3 Evaluation......Page 119
6.4.1 Choosing Experts......Page 120
6.5.1 A Radon Example of Text-Based Evaluation......Page 122
6.6 Reader-Based Evaluation Methods......Page 127
6.6.1 Open-Ended Methods......Page 128
6.6.2 Structured Evaluations/Surveys......Page 132
6.7 Conclusion......Page 136
References......Page 137
7.1 Climate Change......Page 141
7.2 Power-Frequency Fields......Page 157
7.3 Radon in Homes......Page 167
7.4 Nuclear Energy Sources for Space Missions......Page 170
References......Page 173
8 A MENTAL MODELS APPROACH TO HIV/AIDS......Page 176
8.1 An Expert Model of HIV/AIDS......Page 177
8.2 Mental Models Interviews......Page 180
8.3 A Structured Survey......Page 183
8.4 A Mental Models Communication and Its Evaluation......Page 187
8.5 Discussion......Page 189
References......Page 193
9.1 The Cost of Risk Communication......Page 195
9.2 Quality Assurance......Page 196
9.4 The Bottom Line......Page 198
References......Page 199
Appendix A......Page 201
Appendix B......Page 255
Appendix C......Page 319
Appendix D......Page 345
INDEX......Page 357