Revisiting the maximum intensity of recurving tropical cyclones

✍ Scribed by John A. Knaff

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 2009
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 582 KB
• Volume: 29
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0899-8418
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.1746

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

Previous studies have indicated that recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones, initially westward moving tropical cyclones that turn toward the east, often reach their maximum intensity close to the time of recurvature. Those results have often been cited in the literature and sometimes inferred to be valid in other tropical cyclone basins. This study revisits this topic in the western North Pacific, North Atlantic and Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone basins. The timing of lifetime maximum intensity associated with recurving tropical cyclones is examined using best track datasets from the United States' Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Hurricane Center, Miami during the period 1980–2006. Results reveal that tropical cyclones are less likely to experience peak intensity within ± 12 h and ± 24 h of recurvature than has been previously reported in the western North Pacific. Furthermore, it is shown that tropical cyclones that become most intense (i.e. intensities greater than 52 m s^−1^) have a greater tendency to reach peak intensity before recurvature than weaker storms save for in the South Pacific where the most intense storms have a slightly greater probability of reaching their maximum intensity following recurvature. It also appears that weak tropical cyclones (i.e. lifetime peak intensities less than 33 m s^−1^) often reach peak intensity prior to or close to recurvature in all tropical cyclone basins as others have reported. However, findings suggest that the cumulative distributions of maximum intensity with respect to the time of recurvature can be quite different for other intensity ranges suggesting that a universal relationship between peak intensity and time of recurvature does not exist. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society