Reliability and interruption cost prediction using time-dependent failure rates and interruption costs

✍ Scribed by Gerd H. Kjølle; Arne T. Holen

• Book ID: 101292120
• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 1998
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 149 KB
• Volume: 14
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0748-8017
• DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1099-1638(199805/06)14:3<159::aid-qre178>3.0.co;2-2

✦ Synopsis

The main idea presented and discussed in this paper is a model reproducing a time-dependent component failure rate pattern similar to the observed pattern recorded in failure statistics. This pattern includes all types of failures, caused by the weather or by technical and human aspects. Failure causes and mechanisms are not modelled explicitly and the observed pattern is assumed to be representative for the analysis period ahead. Being able to predict and time-tag component failures, the time-dependent variables of load, repair time and customer-specific interruption costs can be adequately combined to calculate annual reliability indices and interruption costs. This fact also permits us to apply an analytical model which will produce expectation values comparable with average values in a Monte Carlo simulation. ©1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.