Quantitative Skill Assessment for Coastal Ocean Models

• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 503
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

About The Product

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Coastal and Estuarine Studies Series.

There can be little doubt that estuarine, coastal and shelf circulation modeling will assume increasing importance in the immediate future, as we work through the implications of industrialization for oceanic systems. These issues will place new and serious operational demands on available models, and the rapid increase in computational power we now enjoy makes it possible to respond with detailed simulations in many categories. As a result, we are witnessing an explosive growth in the quantity of model-generated information. Lacking, however, is a concomitant increase in its quality or even in quality control procedures. A single simulation exercise is easily capable of generating gigabytes of output in a matter of hours. Most of the data will necessarily go unexamined by its progenitors. Yet it is highly likely that disks full of simulation output will be used extensively as learning tools for students and researchers, as criteria for engineering design, as a basis for operational decision?]making, and in the formulation of public policy.

The purpose of this volume is to assemble and present what is known about the intrinsic quality of simulation output: its "correctness" for various purposes. We have operated on the twin premises that (1) every simulation has some intrinsic value and (2) every simulation has serious drawbacks. Between these two extremes lies a vast gulf of uncertainty and potential error, which must be bridged in a professional way if modeling is to achieve its potential in the coastal ocean. This is the basic challenge put to the authors of this volume. Essentially we seek to describe and consolidate approaches, theories, and practices for extracting information from models, and to understand the limits of their proper use.

Content:
Chapter 1 A Pragmatic Approach to Model Validation (pages 1–13): Dick P. Dee
Chapter 2 Mesh Generation, A Posteriori Error Estimation and Mesh Refinement (pages 15–29): Graham F. Carey
Chapter 3 Lagrangian Flows in Complex Eulerian Current Fields (pages 31–48): Herman Ridderinkhof
Chapter 4 Assessment of a Second?Order Radiation Boundary Condition for Tidal and Wind Driven Flows (pages 49–70): Matthias Johnsen and Daniel R. Lynch
Chapter 5 An Intercomparison and Validation of a Range of Turbulence Closure Schemes used in Three Dimensional Tidal Models (pages 71–95): Alan M. Davies and Jiuxing Xing
Chapter 6 Turbulence Energy Models in Shallow Sea Oceanography (pages 97–123): Alan M. Davies, Patrick J. Luyten and Eric Deleersnijder
Chapter 7 Depth Dependent Analytical and Numerical Solutions for Wind?Driven Flow in the Coastal Ocean (pages 125–152): Charles G. Hannah and Daniel G. Wright
Chapter 8 Convergence Studies of Tidally?Rectified Circulation on Georges Bank (pages 153–174): Daniel R. Lynch, Justin T. C. Ip, Christopher E. Naimie and Francisco E. Werner
Chapter 9 Modeling and Predicting Tides Over the World Ocean (pages 175–201): Christian Le Provost, Marie?Laure Genco and Florent Lyard
Chapter 10 De?Tiding: Theory and Practice (pages 203–239): Michael G.G. Foreman, William R. Crawford and Richard F. Marsden
Chapter 11 Benchmarks for the Transport Equation: The Convection?Diffusion Forum and Beyond (pages 241–268): Antonio M. Baptista, E. Eric Adams and Philip Gresho
Chapter 12 A Field Test Case for Tidally Forced Flows: A Review of the Tidal Flow Forum (pages 269–283): Francisco E. Werner
Chapter 13 A Review of the Metocean Modeling Project (Momop) Part 1 : Model Comparison Study (pages 285–305): Lars Petter Roed, Bruce Hackett, Bjorn Gjevik and Lars Ingolf Eide
Chapter 14 A Review of the Metocean Modeling Project (MOMOP( Part 2: Model Validation Study (pages 307–327): Bruce Hackett, Lars Fetter Roed, Bjorn Gjevik, Eivind A. Martinsen and Lars Ingolf Eide
Chapter 15 A Plume and Wind Driven Circulation Model of The New York Bight (pages 329–347): L.?Y Oey, J. Manning, H.T. Jo and K.W. You
Chapter 16 Continental Shelf Scale Convergence Studies with a Barotropic Tidal Model (pages 349–371): Richard A. Luettich Jr. and Joannes J. Westerink
Chapter 17 Skill Assessment of an Operational Hydrodynamic Forecast System for the North Sea and Danish Belts (pages 373–396): Hans Jacob Vested, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Henrik Rene Jensen and Karsten Holding Kristensen
Chapter 18 A Preliminary Credibility Analysis of the Lake Erie Portion of the Great Lakes Forecasting System for Springtime Heating Conditions (pages 397–423): Kuan Chihfeng, Keith W. Bedford and David J. Schwab
Chapter 19 The Dutch Continental Shelf Model (pages 425–467): Herman Gerritsen, Hans de Vries and Marc Philippart
Chapter 20 Verification of an Operational Gulf Stream Forecasting Model (pages 469–499): Scott M. Glenn and Allan R. Robinson
Chapter 21 Closure: Quantitative Skill Assessment for Coastal Ocean Models (pages 501–506): Daniel R. Lynch, Alan M. Davies, Herman Gerritsen and Christopher N.K. Mooers

✦ Table of Contents

Title Page......Page 2
Copyright......Page 3
Contents......Page 4
Preface......Page 7
Introduction......Page 8
Computational Models......Page 9
A Pragmatic View on Model Validation
......Page 10
Classification of the Validation Process
......Page 12
Validation Documents......Page 16
Concluding Remarks......Page 17
Glossary......Page 18
References......Page 19
Introduction......Page 21
Point Insertion Strategies......Page 23
Data Structures......Page 26
Error Indicators......Page 28
Iterative Solution......Page 31
Conclusion......Page 32
References......Page 34
Introduction......Page 36
Techniques to Derive Lagrangian Information from 2d Eulerian Current Models
......Page 37
Application to the Wadden Sea and the Gulf Of Maine
......Page 40
Discussion......Page 49
Summary and Conclusions
......Page 51
References......Page 52
Introduction......Page 54
The RBC and its Implementation: Homogeneous Case......Page 55
Superposition of Driven and Homogeneous Solutions......Page 57
Test Cases for Wind Forcing......Page 60
Quarter-Circle Test Case......Page 66
Application Example: Gulf of Maine
......Page 67
Conclusions......Page 72
References......Page 74
Abstract......Page 76
Introduction......Page 77
The Three Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model......Page 78
Turbulence Closure Method......Page 79
Boundary Conditions and Numerical Solution......Page 82
Tidal Calculations Using the Spectral Approach......Page 84
Tidal Calculations Using Turbulence Closure Models......Page 90
Concluding Discussion......Page 96
References......Page 98
Introduction......Page 101
The Governing Equations......Page 103
Surface and Bed Boundary Conditions and Numerical Solution......Page 109
Numerical Calculations......Page 112
Concluding Remarks......Page 121
References......Page 123
Introduction......Page 128
Analytical Solution......Page 130
Examples......Page 134
The Coastal Constraint......Page 143
Conclusions......Page 147
Appendix 1: The Depth Averaged Equations of Motion......Page 149
Appendix 2: Details for Constant Vertical Eddy Viscosity......Page 152
References......Page 155
Introduction......Page 156
Previous Modeling Results......Page 158
Turbulent Time-Domain Model......Page 159
Bottom Stress Convergence Study......Page 162
Grid Convergence Study......Page 164
Topographic Convergence Study......Page 170
Conclusion......Page 173
References......Page 176
Abstract......Page 178
Introduction......Page 179
The Finite Element Hydrodynamic Model......Page 180
The Modeling Strategy......Page 186
Results......Page 190
Conclusions......Page 200
References......Page 202
Introduction......Page 205
Tidal Constituents......Page 206
Stationary Time Series......Page 207
Time Series from a Moving Platform......Page 222
Tide Removal Requiring a Dynamical Interpretation......Page 226
References......Page 236
Goals and Format......Page 242
Merits and Limitations......Page 244
Future Directions......Page 250
Concluding Thoughts......Page 256
References......Page 259
Appendix I Accessing the Electronic CD Forum......Page 261
Appendix II Summary of 1988 CD Forum Problems......Page 262
Introduction......Page 270
Background......Page 271
The Target Equations: The 2-D Shallow Water Equations......Page 272
The Test Case......Page 274
Results and Discussion......Page 275
Summary and Concluding Remarks......Page 281
References......Page 283
Introduction......Page 285
The Models......Page 287
The Test Cases......Page 288
Results......Page 294
Discussion......Page 300
Concluding Remarks......Page 303
References......Page 304
Abstract......Page 306
The Setting: The Mid-norwegian Shelf
......Page 307
The Models......Page 309
Verification Study: Idealized Test Cases Revisited......Page 310
The Validation Exercise......Page 317
What Has Been Learned About Model Validation?......Page 322
References......Page 324
Introduction......Page 327
The Model......Page 329
Model Results......Page 333
Surface Trajectory......Page 342
Concluding Summary......Page 343
References......Page 344
Introduction......Page 346
Model Formulation......Page 349
Convergence Sequence1: Grid Resolution......Page 350
Convergence Sequence 2: Bathymetric Resolution......Page 354
Convergence Sequence 3: Nonuniform Grids......Page 360
Conclusions......Page 366
References......Page 367
Introduction......Page 369
The North Sea- Baltic Hydrodynamic Warning System......Page 370
Assessment of Model Accuracy......Page 374
Initialisation of Storm Surge Models......Page 383
Discussion and Conclusion......Page 391
References......Page 392
Abstract......Page 393
Introduction and Overview......Page 394
Field Data......Page 395
Objective Analysis......Page 397
The Princeton Numerical Ocean Model......Page 401
Skill Test and Evaluation......Page 403
Results......Page 407
Final Remarks......Page 413
References......Page 418
Abstract......Page 420
Contents......Page 421
1 Introduction......Page 422
2 Skill Assessment in Model Development
......Page 424
3 Data Quality Assessment......Page 426
4 The Dutch Continental Shelf Model 搀挀猀洀: Model Definition......Page 428
5 Initial Model Calibration for
Tide......Page 431
6 Calibration and Validation for Surges
......Page 434
8 Later Model Improvements and New Developments
......Page 439
9 Skill Assessment of Dcsm Revisited
......Page 451
10 Csm-16 in Operational Mode
......Page 452
11 Concluding Remarks......Page 459
References......Page 460
Abstract......Page 463
Introduction......Page 464
Real Time Operational Forecast System......Page 465
High Quality Forecast Simulations......Page 470
Forecast Model Verification......Page 474
Operational Forecast System Verification......Page 488
Summary and Conclusions......Page 490
References......Page 492
Some Thoughts on Skill Assessment......Page 494
Where Do We Stand?......Page 496
Priorities......Page 497
References......Page 499
List of Contributors
......Page 500