Public Support for the Euro
Preface
About the Author
Contents
Chapter 1: Public Support for the Euro and Trust in the ECB: The First Two Decades of the Common Currency
1 Introduction
2 The Role of Public Support for the Euro
3 Earlier Studies
4 Eurobarometer Data
5 Descriptive Results
5.1 Support and Trust in the Euro Area
5.2 Support and Trust among Individual Euro Countries
5.3 Support and Trust outside the Euro Area
6 Econometric Results
7 Explaining the Divergence in Support for the Euro and Trust in the ECB
8 Why Is Popular Support of the Euro So Important? Two Recent Cases
9 Conclusions
Appendix
References
Chapter 2: Revisiting Public Support for the Euro, 1999-2017: Accounting for the Crisis and the Recovery
1 Introduction
2 Public Support for the Euro
3 Descriptive Statistics
4 Empirical Approach
4.1 Model Specification
4.2 Research Design
4.3 Operationalization and Data Used
5 Econometric Results
5.1 Macro Analysis
5.2 Micro Analysis
6 Previous Empirical Results
7 Conclusions
Appendix 1: Net Support for the Euro in the Non-EA-19, 1999-2017
Appendix 2: Descriptive Statistics and Test Results
Appendix 3: Transforming Eq. (2.1) into Eq. (2.2)
The Issue of Endogeneity
Omitted Variables and Autocorrelation
References
Chapter 3: Public Support for the Euro
1 Introduction
2 Support for the Common Currency within the Original Eurozone
3 Support for the Euro among the New Members of the Eurozone
4 Support for the Euro outside the Eurozone
5 Conclusions
References
Chapter 4: Crisis and Public Support for the Euro, 1990-2014
1 Introduction
2 The Role of Public Support for the Euro
3 Public Support for the Euro
3.1 Measuring Public Support for the Single Currency
3.2 Support in the EA-12
3.3 Support across Member States
4 Empirical Approach
4.1 Model Specification
4.2 Research Design
4.3 Data Used
5 Econometric Results
5.1 Macro Analysis
5.2 Micro Analysis
5.3 Previous Findings
6 Discussion
7 Conclusions
Appendix 1: Individual Country Time Series for the EU-27, 1990-2014
Appendix 2: A Detailed Breakdown of the Questionnaire over the 25-year Time Period
Appendix 3: Descriptive Statistics and Test Results
Appendix 4: Detailed Steps Leading from Eqs. (4.1)-(4.2)
The Issue of Endogeneity
Omitted Variables and Autocorrelation
References
Chapter 5: Political Economy of EMU: Rebuilding Systemic Trust in the Euro Area in Times of Crisis
1 Introduction
2 The Empirical Evidence Revisited: Citizens´ Declining Systemic Trust in the EA12
2.1 Before-After Analysis of Aggregated Country Trends of the EU27
2.2 Before-After Analysis of Single Country Trends within the EA12
2.3 Analysing the Net Trust Trends of the EA12 in the Long Run
3 Further Empirical Evidence of a Decline in Systemic Trust
3.1 Net Trust in the ECB
3.2 Net Trust in the EU
3.3 Validity of the Eurobarometer Data
3.4 Satisfaction with Democracy at the National and European Level
4 Consequences of Declining Systemic Trust for the Political Economy of EMU
4.1 Theoretical Arguments
4.1.1 The Loss of Legitimacy
4.1.2 Trust as a Prerequisite for an Economy´s Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability
4.2 Application of Theoretical Arguments to the Most Recent Euro Area Crisis
4.2.1 Loss of Legitimacy
4.2.2 Trust as a Prerequisite for an Economy´s Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability
5 Restoring Citizens´ Systemic Trust in the Euro Area Periphery
5.1 Empirical Findings of the Relationship between Unemployment Rates and Systemic Trust in Times of Crisis
5.1.1 Graphical Analysis
5.1.2 Fairness as an Intermediating Effect between Unemployment and Systemic Trust in Times of Crisis
5.2 Increasing Unemployment throughout the Crisis: Factual Evidence in the Case of Spain
5.3 Tackling Unemployment in Times of Crisis
6 Public Support for the Euro in Times of Crisis
7 Restoring Systemic Trust without Treaty Change and with Treaty Change
7.1 Restoring Systemic Trust in the Short Run without Treaty Change
7.2 Restoring Systemic Trust in the Long Run with Treaty Change
Appendix 1: Conceptualisation of Systemic Trust
Appendix 2: Ancillary Figures and Tables
References
Chapter 6: Crisis and Citizens´ Trust in the European Central Bank: Panel Data Evidence for the Euro Area, 1999-2012
1 Introduction
2 Theoretical Links
2.1 The Consequences of an Enduring Loss of Citizens´ Trust in the ECB
2.2 Possible Drivers of Citizens´ Trust in the ECB
3 Measurement of Data, Model Specification, and Research Design
3.1 Measurement of Data
3.2 Model Specification
3.3 Research Design
4 Descriptive Statistics
5 Econometric Analysis
5.1 Discussion of the Estimation Procedure
5.2 Econometric Results
5.3 Sensitivity of Results
6 Discussion of Results
6.1 Discussion of Results Compared to Previous Empirical Findings
6.2 Discussion of Results in Light of the Underlying Theoretical Assumptions
7 Conclusions
Appendix
References
Chapter 7: Crisis and Public Support for the Euro
1 Introduction
2 Support for the Euro across Older, Larger Member States?
3 Opinions in the Crisis Countries
4 What Does Support Look Like outside the Eurozone?
5 Levels of Trust in the ECB
6 Conclusions
References
Chapter 8: The Eurozone Crisis and Citizens´ Shattered Systemic Trust
Chapter 9: The Enduring Popularity of the Euro throughout the Crisis
1 Measuring Public Support for the Single Currency
2 Determinants of Euro Support
2.1 What Is Novel about Our Findings?
3 Conclusions
Appendix
References
Chapter 10: Has the Financial Crisis Shattered Citizens´ Trust in National and European Governmental Institutions? Evidence fr...
1 Introduction
2 Theoretical Links
2.1 Trust in National Governmental Institutions
2.2 Trust in European Governmental Institutions
3 Previous Findings
3.1 Trust and Support for National Governmental Institutions
3.2 Trust and Support for the EU Trust and Support for European Governmental Institutions
4 Data and Measurement
4.1 Operationalisation
4.2 Model Specifications
4.3 Measurement of Data
5 Descriptive Statistics
6 Econometric Analysis
6.1 The Issue of Dealing with Unexpected Events and Omitted Variables
6.2 The Issue of Structural Break
6.3 The Issue of Endogeneity
6.4 Regression Results
7 Conclusions
Appendix
References
Chapter 11: The Effect of the Financial Crisis on Systemic Trust
1 The Key Role of Sufficient Levels of Systemic Trust
2 Evidence from Eurobarometer
3 Confidence in National Governments
4 Confidence in the Market Economy
5 Conclusions
Correction to: Crisis and Public Support for the Euro, 1990-2014