Foreword......Page 6
Preface......Page 8
Contents......Page 10
1.1 Introduction......Page 15
1.2 Historical Consideration of Risk......Page 19
1.6 Philosophical Phase......Page 20
1.9 Economic Loss and Economic Benefit......Page 21
1.11 Risk Cause......Page 22
1.15 Hazard......Page 23
1.18 Morale Hazard......Page 24
1.20 Consequences of Risk......Page 25
1.21 Reaction to Risk......Page 26
1.23 Structural Elements of Firm......Page 27
1.24 Objectives of Firm......Page 28
1.26 Safety Operations......Page 29
1.28 Risk Measurement......Page 30
1.30 Risk Control......Page 31
1.31 Risk Avoidance......Page 32
1.32 Control of Total Risk Severity......Page 33
1.33 Separation of Risk Carriers......Page 34
1.35 Risk Transfer......Page 35
1.37 Risk Retention......Page 36
1.39 Management Concepts......Page 37
1.41 Mathematical Approach of Management......Page 40
1.45 Relationship of Risk Management to Management......Page 41
1.46 Prerequisites of Applying Risk Management......Page 42
1.48 Risk Management Objectives......Page 43
1.49 Risk Management and Human Needs......Page 44
1.52 Social Progress and Proactive Risk Management......Page 46
1.54 Data-Information-Knowledge......Page 47
1.55 Information Operators......Page 48
1.57 Risk Avoidance and Evolution of Memory......Page 49
1.60 Risk Acceptance and Results of Calculations......Page 50
1.63 Risk of Excessive Speed of Development......Page 51
1.66 Playing Man......Page 52
1.69 Risk in Society......Page 53
1.71 Risk and Possession of Software......Page 54
1.73 Risks of Savanna......Page 55
1.76 Specific Boldness and Risk of Isolation......Page 56
1.79 Risk and Time......Page 57
1.82 Risks and Globalization......Page 58
1.84 Risk Taking and Values......Page 59
1.87 Risky Shift......Page 60
1.91 Essence of Risk Management......Page 61
1.94 Uncertainty Principle of Risk Management......Page 62
1.97 Structural Elements of Risk Management......Page 63
1.100 Risk Management as Necessity......Page 64
1.102.2 Aim of System......Page 65
1.102.7 Regulation......Page 66
1.103 Combining Elements of Risk Management and Resilience......Page 67
1.106 Risk Management and Cindynics......Page 68
1.107 Risk Management and Stochastic Models......Page 69
2.1 Introduction......Page 73
2.3 Model of Risk Duration......Page 74
2.4 Model of Risk Frequency......Page 75
2.5 Total Risk Severity......Page 79
2.6 Recovery Time of a Partially Damaged System......Page 89
2.7 Time of First Damage of a System Threatened by a Random Number of Risks......Page 91
2.8 Time of First Major Damage......Page 94
2.9 Number of Ongoing Risk Occurrences......Page 95
2.10 Multiplicative Models of Risk Severity......Page 100
2.11 Riskiness......Page 105
2.12 Total Risk Severity and Asset Liquidation......Page 116
2.13 Total Risk Severity and Total Income......Page 119
2.14 Recovery Time of a Partially Damaged System and Release Time of a Backup System......Page 122
2.15 Vector of Recovery Times of Two Partially Damaged Systems......Page 125
2.16 Recovery Time of a Partially Damaged System Under a Random Number of Competing Risks......Page 129
2.17 Considering a System Under a Random Number of Competing Risks......Page 133
2.18 Pair of Systems Under Competing Risks......Page 136
2.19 Time of First Major Damage and Asset Liquidation......Page 140
2.20 Time of First Major Damage and Loan Portfolio......Page 142
3.1 Introduction......Page 145
3.2 Models of Risk Severity Reduction Operations......Page 146
3.3 Models of Risk Duration Reduction Operations......Page 155
3.4 Operations of Deleting Risk Occurrences with Constant Probability......Page 166
3.5 Operations of Deleting Risk Occurrences with Random Probability......Page 171
3.6 Integral Part Models of Risk Frequency Reduction Operations......Page 176
3.7 Cost of an Operation of Deleting Risk Occurrences with Constant Probability......Page 195
3.8 Capital of Treatment of Ongoing Risk Occurrences......Page 203
3.9 Binomial Random Sums in Modeling Risk Control Operations......Page 206
3.10 Modeling Risk Financing Operations......Page 209
3.11 Time of First Retained Risk Occurrence and Total Cost of Deleting Risk Occurrences......Page 213
3.12 Occurrence Time and Total Severity of First Retained Risk Occurrence......Page 216
3.13 Free of Risk Occurrences Time Interval and Total Benefit of Applying a Risk Frequency Reduction Operation......Page 220
3.14 Free of Risk Occurrences Time Interval and Loan Portfolio......Page 223
3.15 Cost of Deleting Occurrences of a Risk with Constant Probability and Total Severity of First Retained Risk Occurrence......Page 228
3.16 Convoluting Cost of Deleting Risk Occurrences with Constant Probability and Total Severity of First Retained Risk Occurrence......Page 238
4.1 Introduction......Page 244
4.2 Present Value of a Single Cash Flow and Proactive Risk Management Decision Making......Page 245
4.3 Present Value of Total Risk Severity......Page 255
4.4 Recovery Time of a Partially Damaged System and Present Value of a Single Cash Flow......Page 264
4.5 Recovery Time of a Partially Damaged System and Present Value of a Continuous Uniform Cash Flow......Page 288
4.6 Time of First Damage for a System Threatened by a Random Number of Risks and Present Value of a Single Cash Flow......Page 295
4.7 Time of First Damage for a System Threatened by a Random Number of Risks and Present Value of a Continuous Uniform Cash Flow......Page 318
Bibliography......Page 325