Probability as logic

✍ Scribed by Jaynes E.T.

• Book ID: 127397891
• Year: 1989
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 165 KB
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

At the 1988 workshop we called attention to the \Mind Projection Fallacy which is present in all ♀elds that use probability. Here we give a more complete discussion showing why probabilities need not correspond to physical causal in uences, or propensities a♂ecting mass phenomena. Probability theory is far more useful if we recognize that probabilities express fundamentally logical inferences pertaining to individual cases. We note several examples of the di♂erence this makes in real applications.