𝔖 Bobbio Scriptorium
✦   LIBER   ✦

Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation: A Practical Approach

✍ Scribed by Doubilet, P.; Begg, C. B.; Weinstein, M. C.; Braun, P.; McNeil, B. J.


Book ID
126768580
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Year
1985
Tongue
English
Weight
1007 KB
Volume
5
Category
Article
ISSN
0272-989X

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✦ Synopsis


The data for medical decision analyses are often unreliable. Traditional sensitivity analysisvarying one or more probability or utility estimates from baseline values to see if the optimal strategy changes -is cumbersome if more than two values are allowed to vary concurrently. This paper describes a practical method for probabilis- tic sensitivity analysis, in which uncertainties in all values are considered simultane- ously. The uncertainty in each probability and utility is assumed to possess a proba- bility distribution. For ease of application we have used a parametric model that permits each distribution to be specified by two values: the baseline estimate and a bound (upper or lower) of the 95 percent confidence interval. Following multiple simulations of the decision tree in which each probability and utility is randomly as- signed a value within its distribution, the following results are recorded: (a) the mean and standard deviation of the expected utility of each strategy; (b) the frequency with which each strategy is optimal; (c) the frequency with which each strategy &dquo;buys&dquo; or &dquo;costs&dquo; a specified amount of utility relative to the remaining strategies. As illustrat- ed by an application to a previously published decision analysis, this technique is easy to use and can be a valuable addition to the armamentarium of the decision analyst. (Med Decis Making 5: 157-177, 1985)


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