Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation: A Practical Approach
β Scribed by Doubilet, P.; Begg, C. B.; Weinstein, M. C.; Braun, P.; McNeil, B. J.
- Book ID
- 126768580
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Year
- 1985
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 1007 KB
- Volume
- 5
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0272-989X
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
β¦ Synopsis
The data for medical decision analyses are often unreliable. Traditional sensitivity analysisvarying one or more probability or utility estimates from baseline values to see if the optimal strategy changes -is cumbersome if more than two values are allowed to vary concurrently. This paper describes a practical method for probabilis- tic sensitivity analysis, in which uncertainties in all values are considered simultane- ously. The uncertainty in each probability and utility is assumed to possess a proba- bility distribution. For ease of application we have used a parametric model that permits each distribution to be specified by two values: the baseline estimate and a bound (upper or lower) of the 95 percent confidence interval. Following multiple simulations of the decision tree in which each probability and utility is randomly as- signed a value within its distribution, the following results are recorded: (a) the mean and standard deviation of the expected utility of each strategy; (b) the frequency with which each strategy is optimal; (c) the frequency with which each strategy &dquo;buys&dquo; or &dquo;costs&dquo; a specified amount of utility relative to the remaining strategies. As illustrat- ed by an application to a previously published decision analysis, this technique is easy to use and can be a valuable addition to the armamentarium of the decision analyst. (Med Decis Making 5: 157-177, 1985)
π SIMILAR VOLUMES
Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method has been widely used in probabilistic analysis of slope stability, and it provides a robust and simple way to assess failure probability. However, MCS method does not offer insight into the relative contributions of various uncertainties (e.g., inherent spatial va
## Abstract Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) is required to account for uncertainty in costβeffectiveness calculations arising from health economic models. The simplest way to perform PSA in practice is by Monte Carlo methods, which involves running the model many times using randomly sampl