Probabilistic risk assessment and management for engineers and scientists

✍ Scribed by Henley, Ernest J.; Kumamoto, Hiromitsu

• Publisher: Wiley-IEEE
• Year: 1996
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 615
• Edition: 2nd ed
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

Electrical Engineering Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists Second Edition "State of the art in risk analysis...[this book] projects the technology into the next decade. Congratulations to the authors on a virtuoso performance." -Charles Donaghey, University of Houston "A very useful reference to the academic and government communities, and junior engineering staff within nuclear, chemical, transportation, aerospace, and other industries." -Yovan Lukic, Arizona Public Service Company As the demands of government agencies and insurance companies escalate, societal risk assessment and management become increasingly critical to the development and use of engineered systems in the full range of industrial installations. Packed with real-world examples and practical mathematical and statistical methods for large, complex systems, this definitive text and sourcebook gives you the guidance you need for thorough and conclusive study. You'll find new and updated coverage of all the key topics related to risk analysis: * Probabilistic nature of risk * Qualitative and quantitative risk assessments * System decomposition * Legal and regulatory risks * And much more! The authors also provide end-of-chapter problems and a course outline. Complete with a new, automated, fault tree synthesis method using semantic networks. Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists, Second Edition will be of value to anyone working with engineered systems. Also of Interest from IEEE Press... Successful Patents and Patenting for Engineers and Scientists edited by Michael A. Lechter, Esq. 1995 Softcover 432 pp IEEE Order No. PP4478 ISBN 0-7803-1086-1 Metric Units and Conversion Charts A Metrication Handbook for Engineers, Technologists, and Scientists Second Edition Theodore Wildi 1995 Softcover 144 pp IEEE Order No. PP4044 ISBN 0-7803-1050-0 The Probability Tutoring Book An Intuitive Course for Engineers and Scientists (And Everyone Else!) Carol Ash 1993 Softcover 480 pp IEEE Order No. PP2881 ISBN 0-7803-1051-9.

✦ Table of Contents

Cover......Page 1
Title......Page 4
ISBN 0-7803-6017-6......Page 5
Contents......Page 6
PREFACE......Page 16
1 BASIC RISK CONCEPTS......Page 19
1.1 Introduction......Page 19
1.2 Formal Definition of Risk......Page 19
1.2.1 Outcomes and Likelihoods......Page 19
1.2.2 Uncertainty and Meta-Uncertainty......Page 22
1.2.3 Risk Assessment and Management......Page 24
1.2.4 Alternatives and Controllability of Risk......Page 26
1.2.5 Outcome Significance......Page 30
1.2.6 Causal Scenario......Page 32
1.2.7 Population Affected......Page 33
1.2.8 Population Versus Individual Risk......Page 33
1.2.9 Summary......Page 36
1.3 Source of Debates......Page 36
1.3.1 Different Viewpoints Toward Risk......Page 36
1.3.2 Differences in Risk Assessment......Page 37
1.3.3 Differences in Risk Management......Page 40
1.3.4 Summary......Page 44
1.4 Risk-Aversion Mechanisms......Page 44
1.4.1 Risk Aversion......Page 45
1.4.2 Three Attitudes Toward Monetary Outcome......Page 45
1.4.3 Significance of Fatality Outcome......Page 48
1.4.4 Mechanisms for Risk Aversion......Page 49
1.4.5 Bayesian Explanation of Severity Overestimation......Page 49
1.4.6 Bayesian Explanation of Likelihood Overestimation......Page 50
1.4.7 PRAM Credibility Problem......Page 53
1.4.8 Summary......Page 53
1.5 Safety Goals......Page 53
1.5.1 Availability, Reliability, Risk, and Safety......Page 53
1.5.2 Hierarchical Goals for PRAM......Page 54
1.5.3 Upper and Lower Bound Goals......Page 55
1.5.4 Goals for Normal Activities......Page 60
1.5.5 Goals for Catastrophic Accidents......Page 61
1.5.6 Idealistic Versus Pragmatic Goals......Page 66
1.5.7 Summary......Page 70
References......Page 71
Problems......Page 72
2 ACCIDENT MECHANISMS AND RISK MANAGEMENT......Page 73
2.1 Introduction......Page 73
2.2 Accident-Causing Mechanisms......Page 73
2.2.1 Common Features of Plants with Risks......Page 73
2.2.2 Negative Interactions Between Humans and the Plant......Page 75
2.2.3 A Taxonomy of Negative Interactions......Page 76
2.2.4 Chronological Distribution of Failures......Page 80
2.2.5 Safety System and Its Malfunctions......Page 82
2.2.6 Event Layer and Likelihood Layer......Page 85
2.2.7 Dependent Failures and Management Deficiencies......Page 90
2.2.8 Summary......Page 93
2.3 Risk Management......Page 93
2.3.1 Risk-Management Principles......Page 93
2.3.2 Accident Prevention and Consequence Mitigation......Page 96
2.3.3 Failure Prevention......Page 96
2.3.4 Propagation Prevention......Page 99
2.3.5 Consequence Mitigation......Page 102
2.3.6 Summary......Page 103
2.4 Preproduction Quality Assurance Program......Page 103
2.4.1 Motivation......Page 104
2.4.2 Preproduction Design Process......Page 104
2.4.3 Design Review for PQA......Page 105
2.4.4 Management and Organizational Matters......Page 110
2.4.5 Summary......Page 111
References......Page 111
Problems......Page 112
3 PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT......Page 113
3.1 Introduction to Probabilistic Risk Assessment......Page 113
3.1.1 Initiating-Event and Risk Profiles......Page 113
3.1.2 Plants without Hazardous Materials......Page 114
3.1.3 Plants with Hazardous Materials......Page 115
3.1.4 Nuclear Power Plant PRA: WASH-1400......Page 116
3.1.5 WASH-1400 Update: NUREG-1150......Page 120
3.1.6 Summary......Page 122
3.2 Initiating-Event Search......Page 122
3.2.1 Searching for Initiating Events......Page 122
3.2.2 Checklists......Page 123
3.2.3 Preliminary Hazard Analysis......Page 124
3.2.4 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis......Page 126
3.2.5 FMECA......Page 128
3.2.6 Hazard and Operability Study......Page 131
3.2.7 Master Logic Diagram......Page 133
3.2.8 Summary......Page 133
3.3 The Three PRA Levels......Page 135
3.3.1 Levell PRA-Accident Frequency......Page 135
3.3.2 Level 2 PRA-Accident Progression and Source Term......Page 144
3.3.3 Level 3 PRA-Offside Consequence......Page 145
3.3.4 Summary......Page 145
3.4 Risk Calculations......Page 146
3.4.1 The Level 3 PRA Risk Profile......Page 146
3.4.2 The Level 2 PRA Risk Profile......Page 148
3.4.3 The Levell PRA Risk Profile......Page 148
3.4.4 Uncertainty of Risk Profiles......Page 149
3.4.5 Summary......Page 149
3.5 Example of a Level 3 PRA......Page 150
3.6 Benefits, Detriments, and Successes of PRA......Page 150
3.6.1 Tangible Benefits in Design and Operation......Page 150
3.6.2 Intangible Benefits......Page 151
3.6.3 PRA Negatives......Page 152
3.6.4 Success Factors of PRA Program......Page 152
3.6.5 Summary......Page 154
References......Page 154
Chapter Three Appendices......Page 156
A.l Conditional and Unconditional Probabilities......Page 156
A.1.1 Definition of Conditional Probabilities......Page 156
A.1.2 Chain Rule......Page 157
A.1.3 Alternative Expression of Conditional Probabilities......Page 158
A.1.4 Independence......Page 158
A.1.5 Bridge Rule......Page 159
A.1.6 Bayes Theorem for Discrete Variables......Page 160
A.1.7 Bayes Theorem for Continuous Variables......Page 161
A.2 Venn Diagrams and Boolean Operations......Page 161
A.2.1 Introduction......Page 161
A.2.2 Event Manipulations via Venn Diagrams......Page 162
A.2.3 Probability and Venn Diagrams......Page 163
A.2.4 Boolean Variables and Venn Diagrams......Page 164
A.2.5 Rules for Boolean Manipulations......Page 165
A.3 A Level for 3 PRA-Station Blackout......Page 166
A.3.1 Plant Description......Page 166
A.3.2 Event Tree for Station Blackout......Page 168
A.3.3 Accident Sequences......Page 170
A.3.4 Fault Trees......Page 170
A.3.5 Accident-Sequence Cut Sets......Page 171
A.3.6 Accident-Sequence Quantification......Page 173
A.3.7 Accident-Sequence Group......Page 174
A.3.8 Uncertainty Analysis......Page 174
A.3.9 Accident-Progression Analysis......Page 174
A.3.10 Summary......Page 181
Problems......Page 181
4 FAULT-TREE CONSTRUCTION......Page 183
4.1 Introduction......Page 183
4.2 Fault Trees......Page 184
4.3 Fault-Tree Building Blocks......Page 184
4.3.1 Gate Symbols......Page 184
4.3.2 Event Symbols......Page 190
4.3.3 Summary......Page 192
4.4 Finding Top Events......Page 193
4.4.1 Forward and Backward Approaches......Page 193
4.4.2 Component Interrelations and System Topography......Page 193
4.4.3 Plant Boundary Conditions......Page 194
4.4.4 Example of Preliminary Forward Analysis......Page 194
4.4.5 Summary......Page 197
4.5 Procedure for Fault-Tree Construction......Page 197
4.5.1 Fault-Tree Example......Page 198
4.5.2 Heuristic Guidelines......Page 202
4.5.3 Conditions Induces by OR and AND Gates......Page 206
4.5.4 Summary......Page 212
4.6 Automated Fault-Tree Synthesis......Page 214
4.6.1 Introduction......Page 214
4.6.2 System Representation by Semantic Networks......Page 215
4.6.3 Event Development Rules......Page 222
4.6.4 Recursive Three-Value Procedure for FT Generation......Page 224
4.6.5 Examples......Page 228
4.6.6 Summary......Page 238
References......Page 240
Problems......Page 241
5 QUALITATIVE ASPECTS OF SYSTEM ANALYSIS......Page 245
5.1 Introduction......Page 245
5.2 Cut Sets and Path Sets......Page 245
5.2.1 Cut Sets......Page 245
5.2.2 Path Sets (Tie Sets)......Page 245
5.2.3 Minimal Cut Sets......Page 247
5.2.4 Minimal Path Sets......Page 247
5.2.5 Minimal Cut Generation (Top-Down)......Page 247
5.2.6 Minimal Cut Generation (Bottom-Up)......Page 249
5.2.7 Minimal Path Generation (Top-Down)......Page 250
5.2.8 Minimal Path Generation (Bottom-Up)......Page 251
5.2.9 Coping with Large Fault Trees......Page 252
5.3 Common-Cause Failure Analysis......Page 258
5.3.1 Common-Cause Cut Sets......Page 258
5.3.2 Common Causes and Basic Events......Page 259
5.3.3 Obtaining Common-Cause Cut Sets......Page 260
5.4 Fault-Tree Linking Along an Accident Sequence......Page 264
5.4.1 Simple Example......Page 264
5.4.2 A More Realistic Example......Page 266
5.5 Noncoherent Fault Trees......Page 269
5.5.1 Introduction......Page 269
5.5.2 Minimal Cut Sets for a Binary Fault Tree......Page 270
5.5.3 Minimal Cut Sets for a Multistate Fault Tree......Page 275
References......Page 276
Problems......Page 277
6 QUANTIFICATIONOF BASIC EVENTS......Page 281
6.1 Introduction......Page 281
6.2 Probabilistic Parameters......Page 282
6.2.1 A Repair-to-Failure Process......Page 283
6.2.2 A Repair-Failure-Repair Process......Page 289
6.2.3 Parameters of Repair-to-Failure Process......Page 292
6.2.4 Parameters of Failure-to-Repair Process......Page 296
6.2.5 Probabilistic Combined-Process Parameters......Page 298
6.3 Fundamental Relations Among Probabilistic Parameters......Page 303
6.3.1 Repair-to-Failure Parameters......Page 303
6.3.2 Failure-to-Repair Parameters......Page 307
6.3.3 Combined-Process Parameters......Page 308
6.4 Constant-Failure Rate and Repair-Rate Model......Page 315
6.4.1 Repair-to-Failure Process......Page 315
6.4.2 Failure-to-Repair Process......Page 317
6.4.3 Laplace Transform Analysis......Page 317
6.4.4 Markov Analysis......Page 321
6.5 Statistical Distributions......Page 322
6.6 General Failure and Repair Rates......Page 322
6.7 Estimating Distribution Parameters......Page 327
6.7.1 Parameter Estimation for Repair-to-Failure Process......Page 327
6.7.2 Parameter Estimation for Failure-to-Repair Process......Page 336
6.8 Components with Multiple Failure Modes......Page 340
6.9 Environmental Inputs......Page 343
6.9.1 Command Failures......Page 343
6.9.2 Secondary Failures......Page 343
6.10 Human Error......Page 344
6.11 System-Dependent Basic Event......Page 344
References......Page 345
Chapter Six Appendices......Page 345
A.l Distributions......Page 345
A.l.l Mean......Page 346
A.l.2 Median......Page 346
A.l.3 Mode......Page 346
A.l.4 Variance and Standard Deviation......Page 346
A.l.5 Exponential Distribution......Page 347
A.l.6 Normal Distribution......Page 348
A.l.7 Log-Normal Distribution......Page 348
A.l.8 Weibull Distribution......Page 348
A.l.9 Binomial Distribution......Page 349
A.l.lO Poisson Distribution......Page 349
A.l.ll Gamma Distribution......Page 350
A.l.12 Other Distributions......Page 350
A.2 A Constant-Failure-Rate Property......Page 350
A.3 Derivation of Unavailability Formula......Page 351
A.4 Computational Procedure for Incomplete Test Data......Page 352
A.5 Median-Rank Plotting Position......Page 352
A.6 Failure and Repair Basic Definitions......Page 353
Problems......Page 353
7 CONFIDENCE INTERVALS......Page 357
7.1 Classical Confidence Limits......Page 357
7.1.1 Introduction......Page 357
7.1.2 General Principles......Page 358
7.1.3 Types of Life-Tests......Page 364
7.1.4 Confidence Limits for Mean Time to Failure......Page 364
7.1.5 Confidence Limits for Binomial Distributions......Page 367
7.2 Bayesian Reliability and Confidence Limits......Page 369
7.2.1 Discrete Bayes Theorem......Page 369
7.2.2 Continuous Bayes Theorem......Page 370
7.2.3 Confidence Limits......Page 371
References......Page 372
Chapter Seven Appendix......Page 372
A.l The x2, Student's t, and F Distributions......Page 372
A.l.l X2 Distribution Application Modes......Page 373
A.l.2 Student's t Distribution Application Modes......Page 374
A.1.3 F Distribution Application Modes......Page 375
Problems......Page 377
8 QUANTITATIVE ASPECTS OF SYSTEM ANALYSIS......Page 381
8.1 Introduction......Page 381
8.2 Simple Systems......Page 383
8.2.1 Independent Basic Events......Page 383
8.2.2 AND Gate......Page 384
8.2.3 OR Gate......Page 384
8.2.4 Voting Gate......Page 385
8.2.5 Reliability Block Diagrams......Page 389
8.3 Truth-Table Approach......Page 392
8.3.1 AND Gate......Page 392
8.3.2 OR Gate......Page 392
8.4 Structure-Function Approach......Page 397
8.4.1 Structure Functions......Page 397
8.4.2 System Representation......Page 397
8.4.3 Unavailability Calculations......Page 398
8.5 Approaches Based on Minimal Cuts or Minimal Paths......Page 401
8.5.1 Minimal Cut Representations......Page 401
8.5.2 Minimal Path Representations......Page 402
8.5.3 Partial Pivotal Decomposition......Page 404
8.5.4 Inclusion-Exclusion Formula......Page 405
8.6 Lower and Upper Bounds for System Unavailability......Page 407
8.6.1 Inclusion-Exclusion Bounds......Page 407
8.6.2 Esary and Proschan Bounds......Page 408
8.6.3 Partial Minimal Cut Sets and Path Sets......Page 408
8.7 System Quantification by KITT......Page 409
8.7.1 Overview of KITT......Page 410
8.7.2 Minimal Cut Set Parameters......Page 415
8.7.3 System Unavailability Qs(t)......Page 420
8.7.4 System Parameter ws(t)......Page 422
8.7.5 Other System Parameters......Page 427
8.7.6 Short-Cut Calculation Methods......Page 428
8.7.7 The Inhibit Gate......Page 432
8.7.8 Remarks on Quantification Methods......Page 433
8.8 Alarm Function and Two Types of Failure......Page 434
8.8.1 Definition of Alarm Function......Page 434
8.8.2 Failed-Safe and Failed-Dangerous Failures......Page 434
8.8.3 Probabilistic Parameters......Page 437
References......Page 438
Problems......Page 439
9 SYSTEM QUANTIFICATION FOR DEPENDENT EVENTS......Page 443
9.1 Dependent Failures......Page 443
9.1.1 Functional and Common-Unit Dependency......Page 443
9.1.2 Common-Cause Failure......Page 444
9.1.3 Subtle Dependency......Page 444
9.1.4 System-Quantification Process......Page 444
9.2 Markov Model for Standby Redundancy......Page 445
9.2.1 Hot, Cold, and Warm Standby......Page 445
9.2.2 Inclusion-Exclusion Formula......Page 445
9.2.3 Time-Dependent Unavailability......Page 446
9.2.4 Steady-State Unavailability......Page 457
9.2.5 Failures per Unit Time......Page 460
9.2.6 Reliability and Repairability......Page 462
9.3 Common-Cause Failure Analysis......Page 464
9.3.1 Subcomponent-Level Analysis......Page 464
9.3.2 Beta-Factor Model......Page 467
9.3.3 Basic-Parameter Model......Page 474
9.3.4 Multiple Greek Letter Model......Page 479
9.3.5 Binomial Failure-Rate Model......Page 482
9.3.6 Markov Model......Page 485
References......Page 487
Problems......Page 487
10 HUMAN RELIABILITY......Page 489
10.1 Introduction......Page 489
10.2 Classifying Human Errors for PRA......Page 490
10.2.1 Before an Initiating Event......Page 490
10.2.2 During an Accident......Page 490
10.3 Human and Computer Hardware System......Page 492
10.3.1 The Human Computer......Page 492
10.3.2 Brain Bottlenecks......Page 495
10.3.3 Human Performance Variations......Page 496
10.4 Performance-Shaping Factors......Page 499
10.4.1 Internal PSFs......Page 499
10.4.2 External PSFs......Page 502
10.4.3 Types of Mental Processes......Page 505
10.5 Human-Performance Quantification by PSFs......Page 507
10.5.1 Human-Error Rates and Stress Levels......Page 507
10.5.2 Error Types, Screening Values......Page 509
10.5.3 Response Time......Page 510
10.5.4 Integration of PSFs by Experts......Page 510
10.5.5 Recovery Actions......Page 512
10.6 Examples of Human Error......Page 512
10.6.1 Errors in Thought Processes......Page 512
10.6.2 Lapse/Slip Errors......Page 515
10.7 SHARP: General Framework......Page 516
10.8 THERP: Routine and Procedure-Following Errors......Page 517
10.8.1 Introduction......Page 517
10.8.2 General THERP Procedure......Page 520
10.9 HCR: Nonresponse Probability......Page 524
10.10 Wrong Actions due to Misdiagnosis......Page 527
10.10.1 Initiating-Event Confusion......Page 527
10.10.2 Procedure Confusion......Page 528
10.10.3 Wrong Actions due to Confusion......Page 528
References......Page 529
Chapter Ten Appendices......Page 531
A.1 THERP for Errors During a Plant Upset......Page 531
A.2 HCR for Two Optional Procedures......Page 543
A.3 Human-Error Probability Tables from Handbook......Page 548
Problems......Page 551
11 UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION......Page 553
11.1 Introduction......Page 553
11.1.1 Risk-Curve Uncertainty......Page 553
11.1.2 Parametric Uncertainty and Modeling Uncertainty......Page 554
11.1.3 Propagation of Parametric Uncertainty......Page 554
11.2 Parametric Uncertainty......Page 554
11.2.1 Statistical Uncertainty......Page 554
11.2.2 Data Evaluation Uncertainty......Page 555
11.2.3 Expert-Evaluated Uncertainty......Page 556
11.3 Plant-Specific Data......Page 557
11.3.1 Incorporating Expert Evaluation as a Prior......Page 557
11.3.2 Incorporating Generic Plant Data as a Prior......Page 557
11.4 Log-Normal Distribution......Page 559
11.4.1 Introduction......Page 559
11.4.2 Distribution Characteristics......Page 559
11.4.3 Log-Normal Determination......Page 560
11.4.4 Human-Error-Rate Confidence Intervals......Page 561
11.4.5 Product of Log-Normal Variables......Page 563
11.4.6 Bias and Dependence......Page 565
11.5 Uncertainty Propagation......Page 567
11.6 Monte Carlo Propagation......Page 568
11.6.1 Unavailability......Page 568
11.6.2 Distribution Parameters......Page 570
11.6.3 Latin Hypercube Sampling......Page 571
11.7 Analytical Moment Propagation......Page 573
11.7.1 AND Gate......Page 573
11.7.2 OR Gate......Page 574
11.7.3 AND and OR Gates......Page 575
11.7.4 Minimal Cut Sets......Page 576
11.7.5 Taylor Series Expansion......Page 578
11.7.6 Orthogonal Expansion......Page 579
11.8 Discrete Probability Algebra......Page 582
11.9 Summary......Page 584
References......Page 584
Chapter Eleven Appendices......Page 585
A.1 Maximum-Likelihood Estimator......Page 585
A.2 Cut Set Covariance Formula......Page 587
A.3 Mean and Variance by Orthogonal Expansion......Page 587
Problems......Page 589
12 LEGAL AND REGULATORY RISKS......Page 591
12.1 Introduction......Page 591
12.2 Losses Arising from Legal Actions......Page 592
12.2.1 Nonproduct Liability Civil Lawsuits......Page 593
12.2.2 Product Liability Lawsuits......Page 593
12.2.3 Lawsuits by Government Agencies......Page 594
12.2.4 Worker's Compensation......Page 595
12.2.5 Lawsuit-Risk Mitigation......Page 596
12.2.6 Regulatory Agency Fines: Risk Reduction Strategies......Page 597
12.3 The Effect of Government Regulations on Safety and Quality......Page 598
12.3.1 Stifling of Initiative and Abrogation of Responsibility......Page 599
12.3.2 Overregulation......Page 600
12.4 Labor and the Safe Workplace......Page 601
12.4.1 Shaping the Company's Safety Culture......Page 602
12.4.2 The Hiring Process......Page 602
12.5 Epilogue......Page 605
INDEX......Page 607

✦ Subjects

Risk assessment;Risk management;Electronic books