Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods

✍ Scribed by Tim Bedford, Roger Cooke

Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Year: 2001
Tongue: English
Leaves: 413
Edition: 1
Category: Library

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations in situations where classical statistical analysis is difficult or impossible. This book discusses the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgment and uncertainty propagation.

✦ Table of Contents

Frontmatter......Page 1
Contents......Page 5
Illustrations......Page 13
Tables......Page 16
Preface......Page 19
Part I - Introduction......Page 21
1 - Probabilistic risk analysis......Page 23
Part II - Theoretical issues and background......Page 35
2 - What is uncertainty?......Page 37
3 - Probabilistic methods......Page 59
4 - Statistical inference......Page 81
5 - Weibull Analysis......Page 103
Part III - System analysis and quantification......Page 117
6 - Fault and event trees......Page 119
7 - Fault trees â•ﬁ analysis......Page 141
8 - Dependent failures......Page 160
9 - Reliability data bases......Page 173
10 - Expert opinion......Page 211
11 - Human reliability......Page 238
12 - Software reliability......Page 260
Part IV - Uncertainty modeling and risk measurement......Page 277
13 - Decision theory......Page 279
14 - Influence diagrams and belief nets......Page 306
15 - Project risk management......Page 319
16 - Probabilistic inversion techniques for uncertainty analysis......Page 336
17 - Uncertainty analysis......Page 346
18 - Risk measurement and regulation......Page 370
Bibliography......Page 393
Index......Page 410

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