Predicting recessions: Some evidence for Germany
โ Scribed by Funke, Norbert
- Book ID
- 110644079
- Publisher
- Springer
- Year
- 1997
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 679 KB
- Volume
- 133
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 1610-2924
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
๐ SIMILAR VOLUMES
## Abstract This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for nonโlinearity and a structural break when the spread between longโ and shortโterm interest rates is the leading indicator. Estimation and model selection procedures allow us to estimate and identify timeโvarying nonโlin
Following Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995a,b), we study the ability of the term structure to predict recessions in eight countries. The results are fourfold. First, the yield curve predicts future recessions in all countries. Second, term spreads forecast recessions as