Predictability of seasonal east coast winter storm surge impacts with application to New York's Long Island
✍ Scribed by Arthur T. DeGaetano
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2008
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 195 KB
- Volume
- 15
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 1350-4827
- DOI
- 10.1002/met.59
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✦ Synopsis
Abstract
The characteristics of seasons with enhanced east coast winter storm (ECWS) and storm surge activity are identified from among a set of global atmospheric circulation indices and local land and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Without regard for storm strength or surge potential, the most active ECWS seasons occur in association with El Niño events. There is also some indication that such seasons are preferred under the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). In terms of storm surge potential, forecasts of strong ECWS activity are more skillful than direct forecasts of the number of extreme surge events. In both cases, SSTs off the southeast US coast and in the Gulf of Mexico differentiate high seasonal activity from relatively inactive seasons. Warmer‐than‐normal SSTs in both regions during summer provide a measure of storm activity in the subsequent winter.
The results provide a means of anticipating seasonal ECWS activity, and to some degree impacts, that is similar to widely used forecasts of tropical storm activity. From a predictive standpoint, forecasts of active strong storm seasons and low surge activity exhibit fairly high false alarm ratios. However, the false alarm rate for forecasts of low storm activity or high surge activity is less than 10%. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society