✦ LIBER ✦

Precision and accuracy of judgmental estimation

✍ Scribed by Ilan Yaniv; Dean P. Foster

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1997
Tongue: English
Weight: 183 KB
Volume: 10
Category: Article
ISSN: 0894-3257
DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(199703)10:1<21::aid-bdm243>3.0.co;2-g

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Whereas probabilistic calibration has been a central normative concept of accuracy in previous research on interval estimates, we suggest here that normative approaches for the evaluation of judgmental estimates should consider the communicative interaction between the individuals who produce the judgments and those who receive or use them for making decisions. We analyze precision and error in judgment and consider the role of the accuracy±informativeness trade-o (Yaniv and Foster, 1995) in the communication of estimates. The results shed light on puzzling ®ndings reported earlier in the literature concerning the calibration of subjective con®dence intervals. *

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