Polynomial approximation of distributed lags and linear restrictions: A Bayesian approach
β Scribed by M. Mouchart; R. Orsi
- Publisher
- Springer-Verlag
- Year
- 1976
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 996 KB
- Volume
- 1
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0377-7332
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
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## Abstract A general Bayesian approach to combining __n__ expert forecasts is developed. Under some moderate assumptions on the distributions of the expert errors, it leads to a consistent, monotonic, quasiβlinear average formula. This generalizes Bordley's results.
The standard approach to combining n expert forecasts involves taking a weighted average. Granger and Ramanathan proposed introducing an intercept term and unnormalized weights. This paper deduces their proposal from Bayesian principles. We find that their formula is equivalent to taking a weighted