Political manoeuvrings as sources of measurement errors in forecasts

✍ Scribed by Susanna-maria Paleologou

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 2005
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 98 KB
• Volume: 24
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0277-6693
• DOI: 10.1002/for.944

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

We test the extent to which political manoeuvrings can be the sources of measurement errors in forecasts. Our objective is to examine the forecast error based on a simple model in which we attempt to explain deviations between the March budget forecast and the November forecast, and deviations between the outcome and the March budget forecast in the UK. The analysis is based on forecasts made by the general government. We use the forecasts of the variables as alternatives to the outcomes. We also test for political spins in the GDP forecast updates and the GDP forecast errors. We find evidence of partisan and electoral effects in forecast updates and forecast errors. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.