Garbage In/Garbage Out
When the computer industry was in its infancy, the expression GIGO (Garbage In/Garbage Out) was coined to guide systems administrators in their systems design efforts. The idea: If the foundation for your work is flawed, the output will be flawed. Joel in his adaptation of Thomas Kuhn's book on paradigms (1970) points out the problems related to changing environments. Basically, both writers propose that if the environment changes and the organization does not, problems will result.
The question which is rarely addressed is this: How fast, how complex, and how chaotic will change be in the future? The fact that few, if any, organizations understand the need to answer these questions as a foundation to the strategy process is reflected in the frequency of failed organizational strategies. Effective strategy-that is, strategy which is developed with profitability and performance in mind-addresses the issues of future change, complexity, and chaos. Possibly the most effective approach that enables organizations to avoid the GIGO problem in strategy is the one developed by Dr. H. Igor , the father of strategic management. That is why war gaming, as well as strategy, is best developed from Ansoff 's approach, including his future turbulence index.