๐”– Bobbio Scriptorium
โœฆ   LIBER   โœฆ

Performance functions and reinforcement learning for trading systems and portfolios

โœ Scribed by John Moody; Lizhong Wu; Yuansong Liao; Matthew Saffell


Book ID
101285838
Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1998
Tongue
English
Weight
433 KB
Volume
17
Category
Article
ISSN
0277-6693

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

โœฆ Synopsis


We propose to train trading systems and portfolios by optimizing objective functions that directly measure trading and investment performance. Rather than basing a trading system on forecasts or training via a supervised learning algorithm using labelled trading data, we train our systems using recurrent reinforcement learning (RRL) algorithms. The performance functions that we consider for reinforcement learning are proยฎt or wealth, economic utility, the Sharpe ratio and our proposed dierential Sharpe ratio. The trading and portfolio management systems require prior decisions as input in order to properly take into account the eects of transactions costs, market impact, and taxes. This temporal dependence on system state requires the use of reinforcement versions of standard recurrent learning algorithms. We present empirical results in controlled experiments that demonstrate the ecacy of some of our methods for optimizing trading systems and portfolios. For a long/short trader, we ยฎnd that maximizing the dierential Sharpe ratio yields more consistent results than maximizing proยฎts, and that both methods outperform a trading system based on forecasts that minimize MSE. We ยฎnd that portfolio traders trained to maximize the dierential Sharpe ratio achieve better risk-adjusted returns than those trained to maximize proยฎt. Finally, we provide simulation results for an S&P 500/TBill asset allocation system that demonstrate the presence of out-of-sample predictability in the monthly S&P 500 stock index for the 25 year period 1970 through 1994.


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