Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been used in the past to predict the performance of printed circuit heat exchangers (PCHE) with satisfactory accuracy. Typically published literature has focused on optimizing ANN using a training dataset to train the network and a testing dataset to evaluate it
Performance evaluation of neural network architectures: the case of predicting foreign exchange correlations
โ Scribed by An-Sing Chen; Mark T. Leung
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2005
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 128 KB
- Volume
- 24
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0277-6693
- DOI
- 10.1002/for.967
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
โฆ Synopsis
In the last decade, neural networks have emerged from an esoteric instrument in academic research to a rather common tool assisting auditors, investors, portfolio managers and investment advisors in making critical financial decisions. It is apparent that a better understanding of the network's performance and limitations would help both researchers and practitioners in analysing real-world problems. Unlike many existing studies which focus on a single type of network architecture, this study evaluates and compares the performance of models based on two competing neural network architectures, the multi-layered feedforward neural network (MLFN) and general regression neural network (GRNN). Our empirical evaluation measures the network models' strength on the prediction of currency exchange correlation with respect to a variety of statistical tests including RMSE, MAE, U statistic, Theil's decomposition test, Henriksson-Merton market timing test and Fair-Shiller informational content test. Results of experiments suggest that the selection of proper architectural design may contribute directly to the success in neural network forecasting. In addition, market timing tests indicate that both MLFN and GRNN models have economically significant values in predicting the exchange rate correlation. On the other hand, informational content tests discover that the neural network models based on different architectures capture useful information not found in each other and the information sets captured by the two network designs are independent of one another. An auxiliary experiment is developed and confirms the possible synergetic effect from combining forecasts made by the two different network architectures and from incorporating information from an implied correlation model into the neural network forecasts. Implied correlation and random walk models are also included in our empirical experiment for benchmark comparison.
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