We read with interest the reviews by Ghouri et al. 1 and Martinez et al. 2 Ghouri et al. analyzed the association of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and concluded that although a diagnosis of NAFLD should prompt diabetes screening, it is insufficient for considering patients to be at high risk for CVD. Martinez et al. evaluated noninvasive methods for assessing liver fibrosis and recommended that those tests with the highest diagnostic accuracy be validated against liver biopsy to facilitate their implementation in clinical practice.
We meta-analyzed prospective data regarding the natural history of NAFLD and studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of noninvasive methods for liver disease severity against liver biopsy in NAFLD, and we reached the following conclusions 3 :
- The two NAFLD histological subtypes, simple steatosis (SS) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), have different risks of liver-related complications: SS progresses to cirrhosis in less than 5% of cases; NASH progresses to cirrhosis in 10% to 15% of cases over 10 years and in 25% to 30% of cases in the presence of advanced fibrosis. 3 2. NAFLD patients have a 1.44-to 2.05-fold higher rate of CVD (depending on whether the diagnosis is based on an aminotransferase elevation or radiological/histological criteria) than the general population; restricting the analysis to studies adjusting for metabolic syndrome did not change the risk. Importantly, CVD mortality did not differ among NAFLD histological subtypes. 3 3. NAFLD conveys a 2-fold increased risk of developing diabetes in comparison with the general population 3 ; restricting the analysis to studies adjusting for metabolic syndrome did not change the risk. Whether the risk of diabetes differs among NAFLD histological subtypes remains unclear: in a communitybased study, the 13-year incidence of diabetes was 2.98-fold higher in NASH patients versus SS patients. 3 According to our analysis, a diagnosis of NAFLD should prompt a thorough three-focus assessment of cardiovascular, metabolic, and liver-related risks (Table 1). 4 Liver-related risk assessment remains problematic because it requires liver histology. Three noninvasive methods have been extensively validated: enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-detected cytokeratin 18 fragments (9 studies enrolling 856 participants) for the detection of NASH and the NAFLD fibrosis score (13 studies enrolling 3064 participants) and FibroScan (6 studies enrolling 563 participants) for the detection of advanced fibrosis. We believe that these methods should be promptly implemented in diagnostic algorithms to select patients for liver biopsy in routine clinical practice while we continue to search for the ideal noninvasive marker.