Dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of the Asian summer monsoon during the onset phase over the Indian Peninsula (Kerala coast) and its variability are examined with reanalysis data sets. For this study, daily averaged (0000 and 1200 UTC) reanalysis data sets of National Centre for Environmental Prediction-National Centre for Atmospheric Research for the period 1948-99 are used.
Based on 52 years of onset dates of the Indian summer monsoon, we categorized pre-onset, onset and post-onset periods (each averaged 5 days) to investigate the mean circulation characteristics and the large-scale energetics of the Asian summer monsoon. It is found that the strength of the low-level Somali jet and upper tropospheric tropical easterly jet increase rapidly during the time of evolution of the summer monsoon over India. Over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, predominant changes are noticed in the large-scale balances of kinetic energy, heat and moisture from the pre-onset to the post-onset periods. Prior to the onset of the summer monsoon over India, a zone of flux convergence of heat and moisture is noticed over the eastern sector of the Bay of Bengal and this intensifies in the onset and postonset periods. During onset of the monsoon over India, the horizontal flux convergence of heat and moisture, as well as diabatic heating, are enhanced over the Arabian Sea. These subsequently increase with the evolution and advancement of the monsoon over India.
Further, the dynamics of the evolution processes (15 days before and 30 days after the onset date of the monsoon over Kerala for each annual cycle) are studied over various sectors, such as the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Indian Peninsula region. The study reveals that the low-level kinetic energy, vertically integrated generation of kinetic energy and net tropospheric moisture over Arabian Sea can be used as potential predictors for the prediction of the possible onset date of the summer monsoon over the Indian Peninsula.