โ Scribed by Rodolfo Soncini-Sessa; Marialuisa Volta
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
A degree-day-based model is presented for a 1 year ahead runoff forecast, with 1 day time steps. The input information is a single snowpack evaluation collected at the beginning of the snowmelt season. The snow-cover dynamics, the key information for long-term snowmelt forecast, are described by the snow-line dynamics, i.e. by the movements of the downhill snowpack limit. The snowmelt volume, estimated by the snow-line dynamics, is the exogenous input of an autoregressive transformation model. The model is calibrated by a least-squares procedure on the basis of observed daily runoff data and the corresponding measurements of the snowpack volume (one measurement per year). A realworld case study on the Alto Tunuyan River basin (2380 km 2 , Argentinean Andes) is presented. The 1 year ahead Alto Tunuyan River runoff patterns, computed for both calibration and validation periods, reveal high agreement with observed streamflows.
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