✍ Scribed by Bijan Mossavar-Ramani; Jesse C. Denton
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
📜 SIMILAR VOLUMES
If recent trends are continued, the price of crude oil will be a strong driving force in changing the practice of energy conversion. The first paper in this series discussed the inclusion of an opportunity cost to a state or nation in the price of crude oil. The second paper discussed the price elas
## Abstract The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield, which can be derived from the cost‐of‐carry relationship. In a recursi
We thank the editor and referee for their valuable comments and suggestions. We also thank Professor Lutz Kilian for providing us the program code to compute the robust P-values.
## Abstract Despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil, oil futures prices tend to be less accurate in the mean‐squared prediction error sense than no‐change forecasts. This result is driven by the variability of the futures price about the spot price, as captured by the oi
This study begins by asking whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected employment in the United States. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between unemployment and crude oil price volatility is established using Granger cau