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On the evaluation of one-sided evidence

✍ Scribed by Lyle A. Brenner; Derek J. Koehler; Amos Tversky

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1996
Tongue
English
Weight
883 KB
Volume
9
Category
Article
ISSN
0894-3257

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

We examine predictions and judgments of confidence based on one-sided evidence. Some subjects saw arguments for only one side of a legal dispute while other subjects (called 'jurors') saw arguments for both sides. Subjects predicted the number of jurors who favored the plaintiff in each case. Subjects who saw only one side made predictions that were biased in favor of that side. Furthermore, they were more confident but generally less accurate than subjects who saw both sides. The results indicate that people do not compensate sufficiently for missing information even when it is painfully obvious that the information available to them is incomplete. A simple manipulation that required subjects to evaluate the relative strength of the opponent's side greatly reduced the tendency to underweigh missing evidence.

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