✦ LIBER ✦

On the components of time series; the removal of spatial dependence

✍ Scribed by T. G. J. Dyer

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1976
Tongue: English
Weight: 535 KB
Volume: 102
Category: Article
ISSN: 0035-9009
DOI: 10.1002/qj.49710243112

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

A linear model is fitted to the precipitation series of each group of stations formed by principal component analysis on 157 precipitation records (Dyer 1975). Precipitation can thus be decomposed into independent components one each for regional temporal effect, regional spatial effect, and a residual or micro‐effect. Each region has a temporal effect which is analysed for trend, enabling the conclusion to be made that Southern Africa's precipitation budget is stationary. On the other hand, trend on a microscale is present over randomly distributed parts of the country. Spectral analysis shows the oscillatory behaviour of the regional temporal effects, and provides information useful to the fitting of stochastic forecasting models to the data. The technique solves the problem of dependence between meteorological time series, and can be applied to any variable.

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