On stochastic perturbation and long-term climate behaviour

✍ Scribed by Alfonso Sutera

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 2007
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 736 KB
• Volume: 107
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0035-9009
• DOI: 10.1002/qj.49710745109

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

A very simple energy‐balance equation for the mean surface temperature of the planet (Budyko‐type model) is perturbed by a stochastic term, simulating the numerous ‘weather’ processes not considered in the deterministic feed‐back term. In the first instance, a symmetrical deterministic process with three equilibrium states is considered. Using standard methods for determination of the probability density distribution, the characteristic time which the climate system spends in the neighbourhood of one stable equilibrium before shifting to the other is expressed in terms of the characteristic time of the feed‐back process and the time constant of the perturbing process. Realistic corresponding values are found. an Appendix discusses the possibility of using the analogy between stochastically perturbed Newtonian and quantum‐dynamical systems in research on climate change.