Nuclear Non-proliferation and Arms Control Verification: Innovative Systems Concepts

✍ Scribed by Irmgard Niemeyer (editor), Mona Dreicer (editor), Gotthard Stein (editor)

• Publisher: Springer
• Year: 2020
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 449
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

This book strives to take stock of current achievements and existing challenges in nuclear verification, identify the available information and gaps that can act as drivers for exploring new approaches to verification strategies and technologies.

With the practical application of the systems concept to nuclear disarmament scenarios and other, non-nuclear verification fields, it investigates, where greater transparency and confidence could be achieved in pursuit of new national or international nonproliferation and arms reduction efforts.

A final discussion looks at how, in the absence of formal government-to-government negotiations, experts can take practical steps to advance the technical development of these concepts.

✦ Table of Contents

Foreword
Acknowledgements
Contents
Contributors
Systems Concepts: Structuring a New Verification Approach
1 Introduction
2 A Systematic Approach
3 Nuclear Weapons Complex
4 The Regime Today
5 More Pieces of the Puzzle
6 Innovative Systems Concepts for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control Verification
References
Part I Status of Verification Strategies
History, Status and Challenges for Non-proliferation and Arms Control Verification
1 On Verification
2 On Verification and Confidence-Building
3 On Verification Provisions
4 Verification in the Nuclear Field: The Role of Technology and Technological Expertise
5 Current Status of Verification Technologies in Arms Control Verification
6 Information Barriers: Attributes and Templates
7 Fixed and Potentially Movable Constraints
8 The Continuing Importance of Progress
References
The Evolution of Safeguards
1 Background
2 Early Strengthening Measures
3 State Evaluation
4 Integrated Safeguards
5 Furthering the Development of the State-Level Concept
6 The State-Level Concept
6.1 Establishment of Safeguards Objectives
Acquisition/Diversion Path Analysis to Establish Technical Objectives
6.2 Development of a State-Level Safeguards Approach
Applicable Safeguards Measures
Annual Implementation Plan
6.3 State-Specific Factors
6.4 Strengthening the State Evaluation Process
6.5 Drawing Safeguards Conclusions
7 Conclusions
References
Part II Factors Influencing the Development of a Systems Concept for Verification
Legal Issues Relating to Risk and Systems Driven Verification
1 Introduction
2 Future Verification Missions
3 Verification Objectives
4 Some Key Legal Considerations
4.1 Non-compliance: Standard of Proof
4.2 Obligation to Cooperate
4.3 Non-discrimination
4.4 Use of and Access to Information
4.5 Verification Tools: Inspections and Monitoring
4.6 Dispute Resolution
4.7 Treaty Structure
5 Conclusions
References
Verification: The Politics of the Unpolitical
1 Introduction
2 Lessons of History Forlorn
3 Lessons of History Regained
4 The Evolution of Safeguards
5 Authority and Authenticity in International Verification
6 Verification and Deterrence
7 Reconciling International Politics and Verification
8 Afterthoughts: The Crisis of Multilateralism
References
Military Dimensions
1 Introduction
2 Setting the Scene
2.1 Growth of Nuclear Arsenals
2.2 Fissile Materials and Technology Control
2.3 De-escalation
2.4 Proliferation Awareness
2.5 Post-NPT Era (1970–1990)
2.6 Post-Cold War Era (1990–2010)
2.7 Current Context
3 Military Dimensions of Nuclear Disarmament
3.1 Existing Commitments
3.2 A Brief Review of the Components of the Military Dimension
4 Conclusions and Future Prospects
References
Strategic Export Control
1 Historical Developments
1.1 The Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT)
1.2 The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)
2 Strategic Export Control and Nuclear Safeguards
3 Addressing Non-nuclear Proliferation
3.1 The International Export Control Regime
3.2 Other Treaties and Agreements
4 An International Legal Basis for Export Control: UNSCR 1540
5 The Export Control Process
5.1 Control Lists
5.2 Other Control Lists
5.3 Key Elements of the Export Control Process
6 Conclusions and Relevance to Disarmament and Arms Control
References
Part III Methods and Models
NTI Nuclear Security Index: A Model for State-Level Approaches to Nonproliferation and Arms Control
1 Introduction
2 About the NTI Index: Goals and Methodology
2.1 Goals of the NTI Index
2.2 NTI Index Methodology
3 Applying the NTI Index Methodology to the State-Level Concept
3.1 Developing a Framework
3.2 Research and Data Gathering
3.3 Government Engagement and Outreach
3.4 Operational Capacity
3.5 Key Differences Between the NTI Index and the State-Level Concept
4 Conclusions
References
Formalizing Acquisition Path Analysis
1 Introduction
2 The Game-Theoretical Model
2.1 Extensive Form
2.2 Normal Form
2.3 Graph Representation
2.4 Equilibrium Multiplicity
2.5 Parameters
3 A Case Study
4 Discussion and Outlook
References
Metrics for Detecting Undeclared Materials and Activities
1 Introduction
2 Potential Clandestine Proliferation Paths
3 Characteristics of the Data Available to the IAEA
3.1 Safeguards Data
3.2 Non-safeguards Data
4 Development of Metrics for Detecting Undeclared Activities
5 Conclusions
References
Game Theoretical Models for Arms Control and Disarmament Verification
1 Introduction
2 Unannounced Interim Inspections
2.1 Game Theoretical Model
2.2 Analysis
2.3 Effective and Efficient Inspections
2.4 Extensions
3 Conclusions: The Art of Modeling
References
Societal Verification for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control
1 Introduction
2 Societal Mobilization
3 Societal Observation
4 Mobilization for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control Verification
5 Observation for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control Verification
6 Challenges and Considerations
7 Conclusions
References
Part IV Technologies
Futures Research as an Opportunity for Innovation in Verification Technologies
1 Introduction: Technology Foresight of Verification Techniques
2 The Classic Technology-Foresight Approach
2.1 Scanning and Monitoring
2.2 Cross-Fertilization of Future Technologies
3 Trend Archaeology'': Bibliometrics for Technology Foresight 3.1 The Bibliometric Workflow 3.2 The Potential of Bibliometrics for Technology Foresight 4 Novel Technological Solutions 4.1 Prediction of New Technological Trends with Text/Web Mining and Clustering 4.2 Methodology 4.3 Case Study 5 Including Experts and Practitioners: Participatory Approaches 6 Conclusions References Attribute Information Barriers 1 Disarmament Verification 2 Why an Information Barrier? 3 Attribute Approach 3.1 Attribute Definition Issues 3.2 Measurement Issues 4 How to Authenticate Nuclear Warheads? 5 When the Light Is Red … References Minimally Intrusive Approaches to Nuclear Warhead Verification 1 Background 2 Confirming Numerical Limits on Declared Nuclear Warheads 3 Confirming the Authenticity of Nuclear Warheads 4 Conclusions References Advances in Seismic and Acoustic Monitoring 1 Introduction 2 Basics of Acoustics and Seismology 3 Advances in Teleseismic Monitoring 4 Advances in Infrasound Monitoring 5 Research for Seismic Monitoring During CTBT On-Site Inspections 6 Applications for Peace Keeping and Early Warning 7 Research for Safeguards at Underground Final Repositories 8 Conclusions References Radiation Detectors and Instrumentation 1 Introduction 2 Special Nuclear Material Signatures 2.1 Uranium Signatures 2.2 Plutonium Signatures 3 Radiation Detection Monitoring and Verification Techniques 3.1 Radiation Pulse Counting 3.2 Spectroscopy Gamma Spectroscopy Alpha Spectroscopy Mass Spectrometry 3.3 Neutron Detection 3.4 Imaging Techniques 4 RDE Implementation Challenges 4.1 Arms Control Implementation Challenges 4.2 General Implementation Challenges 5 Conclusions References Environmental Signatures and Forensics 1Signatures'' as Source of Information
2 Environmental Particle Signatures and Measurements
2.1 New Instruments Opening New Avenues: The LG-SIMS
2.2 Expanding the Set of Established Signatures in Bulk and Particle Samples
3 Nuclear Forensic Signatures
3.1 Radiochronometry
Age Dating of Plutonium
Age Dating of Uranium
3.2 Isotope Correlation for Pu Reactor Type Determination
4 Confidence in Results
5 Synergies Between Safeguards, Non-proliferation and Nuclear Forensics
6 Conclusions
References
Part V Information Analysis
Information Management: The Role of Information Technology in Treaty Verification
1 Introduction
2 Establishing the System Requirements
3 Sources of Information
4 Data Transmission
5 Data Storage and Processing
6 Verification System Information Processing
7 Data Integrity
8 Conclusions
References
Enhancing Verification with High-Performance Computing and Data Analytics
1 Introduction
2 Underlying Technologies: From High Performance Computing to Machine Learning
2.1 High Performance and Data Intensive Computing
2.2 Bringing the Data Together: Machine Learning and Multimodal Semantic Feature Spaces
3 Possible Applications
4 Next Steps
References
Open Source Analysis in Support to Non-proliferation: A Systems Thinking Perspective
1 Introduction
2 What Is Open Source Analysis?
3 How Can Open Source Analysis Monitor an Engineering Programme?
3.1 Defining the System to be Analyzed: A Systems Thinking Approach
3.2 Hard Layers' Observables
3.3 Soft Layers' Observables
3.4 Taking the Context into Account
4 Types of OS Analysis Scenarios for Nuclear Non-proliferation
4.1 Puzzle Solving
4.2 Data Foraging
4.3 Model Building
4.4 Mystery Framing
5 Conclusions
References
Geospatial Information and Technologies for International Safeguards Verification
1 Introduction
2 Geospatial Information and Technologies for Nuclear Safeguards Analysis
2.1 Additional Protocol
2.2 Satellite Imagery
2.3 Open Source Information
2.4 Inspection Results
2.5 GIS-Based Information Integration and Analysis
3 Geospatial Information and Technologies for On-Site Inspections
3.1 3D Laser Scanning
3.2 Location-Based Services
4 Challenges for Applying Geospatial Technologies to Nuclear Safeguards
4.1 Information Security
4.2 Legacy Infrastructure
4.3 Safeguards Culture
4.4 Operator Acceptance
5 Conclusions
References
Remote Sensing Data Processing and Analysis Techniques for Nuclear Non-proliferation
1 Introduction
2 Data Sources
2.1 Electro Optical Data
2.2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Data
3 Data Storage Formats
4 Pre-processing Remote Sensing Data
5 Processing Remote Sensing Data
5.1 Enhancements
5.2 DEM Generation
5.3 Classification
5.4 Change Detection
6 Conclusion
References
Commercial Satellite Imagery: An Evolving Tool in the Non-proliferation Verification and Monitoring Toolkit
1 Introduction
2 The Number of Satellites Is Rapidly Increasing, and Capabilities Are Improving
3 Temporal Resolution Improvements: Observing Activity
4 Spatial Resolution Improvements: Seeing Greater Detail
5 Spectral Resolution Improvements: Seeing Beyond the Visible
6 Improvements in Accessibility and Pricing
7 Multi-Satellite/Multi-Sensor Data Fusion: Creating Innovation in Verification Applications
8 Imagery Analysis Is Critical for Effective Use of Commercial Satellite Imagery
9 Advances in 3D Modeling
10 Conclusions
References
Strategic Trade Analysis for Non-proliferation
1 Introduction
2 Reference Lists of Strategic Items
3 Data Sources for Trade Analysis
4 Mapping Strategic Items to Trade Descriptors
5 Use Cases for Strategic Trade Analysis
5.1 Micro Views
5.2 Macro Views
6 Conclusions
References
Part VI Applications
A Systems Approach for Evaluating a Warhead Monitoring System
1 Introduction
2 Evaluation Methodology
2.1 Evaluation Framework
2.2 Monitoring Approach Specification
2.3 Evaluation: Modeling and Simulations
3 Warhead Monitoring Example
3.1 Notional Treaty Provisions and Monitoring Approach
3.2 Considerations When Applying the Evaluation Framework
3.3 Quantitative Evaluation
4 Conclusions
References
Physical Model and Acquisition Path Analysis: Applicability to Nuclear Disarmament Verification
1 Introduction
1.1 The Physical Model in IAEA Safeguards
1.2 Use of the Physical Model in Acquisition Path Analysis
2 Physical Model and Acquisition Path Analysis in Arms Control Verification
2.1 Adapted Physical Model
2.2 Pathways Analysis
3 Physical Model and Acquisition Path Analysis in Arms Control Verification
4 Application for Biological Weapons
5 Conclusion
References
Investigating Development of Nuclear Arms Control Verification: Requirements at the State Level
1 Introduction
2 Applying Systems Level Analysis to Arms Control
3 Exercise One
3.1 State Strategic Security Objectives
3.2 Verification Objectives
3.3 Acquisition Pathways
3.4 Pathway Attractiveness
3.5 Detection Goals
3.6 Verification Priorities
3.7 Technical Verification Measures
4 Exercise Two
5 Lessons Learned
Appendix: Fictitious States of Trenzalia and Azaria and Model Treaties
Exercise One
Exercise Two
References