North European air pressure anomalies in October and the following central European winter temperature: long-term study and proposed climatological periodization
✍ Scribed by Stalder, Wolfgang
- Book ID
- 101225658
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1997
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 116 KB
- Volume
- 17
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0899-8418
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✦ Synopsis
In the present paper central European winter temperature is attributed to the preceding autumnal European air pressure situation. Only a few stations with continuous data back to the last century are analysed. In particular, north European air pressure anomalies in October seem to be useful predictors. Although short-term correlation coef®cients for 20-year periods reach values as high as 0Á6, being signi®cant on the 99 per cent level, subsequent 20-year periods' correlation can break down and become signi®cantly negative. Phases with signi®cant positive or negative correlation suggest a periodization of the whole data-set, with proposed climatic transition years 1905, 1929, 1959 and 1989. Around these dates other secular changes in the North Atlantic±Europe are mentioned in the literature as well. Interdecadal changes in sea-surface temperature may be responsible.
By improving the understanding of these climatic phases the presented result will be a tool for long-term weather prediction, whereas by neglecting these signi®cant interdecadal changes long-term weather prediction may be doomed to failure if analysis is based on observational data from a `wrong' period.