Non-commitment bias in public opinion on transit usage
✍ Scribed by Arun Chatterjee; Frederick J. Wegmann; Michael Andrew McAdams
- Book ID
- 104643469
- Publisher
- Springer US
- Year
- 1983
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 561 KB
- Volume
- 11
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0049-4488
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Estimation of ridership on a new transit system in an area where no comparable service existed before is a difficult task of transit planning. Traditional modal split models cannot be used in these cases, because no data or basis for developing a new model or adjusting a "borrowed" model are available. One of the techniques which can be used in this type of situation, is to perform a "concept test" based on public opinion. This approach, however, is plagued with the phenomenon of non-commitment bias of interviewees, and tends to overestimate the ridership.
A new fixed route and fixed schedule transit service in Johnson City in Tennessee provided a rare opportunity to perform an investigation on the non-commitment bias through "before" and "after" surveys. The analysis of the non-commitment and actual responses of a Sample of residents revealed substantial bias. Overall, the non-commitment ridership estimate was about twice (100% greater than) the actual ridership. It was also observed that the bias was higher for persons owning automobiles, and for work and shopping trips.