Natural hazard uncertainty assessment: modeling and decision support

✍ Scribed by Riley, Karin; Thompson, Matthew; Webley, Peter

• Publisher: Wiley ; American Geophysical Union
• Year: 2016
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 340
• Series: Geophysical monograph series 223
• Edition: 1
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts.  In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment.  We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope.  Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government.  Key themes and highlights include:

• Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included
• Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty
• Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes
• Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences

This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists.

✦ Table of Contents

Content: Uncertainty in Natural Hazards, Modeling and Decision Support / Karin Riley, Matthew Thompson, Peter Webley, Kevin D Hyde --
Uncertainty, Communication, and Decision Support. Natural Hazard Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis / Matthew Thompson, Jord J Warmink --
Understanding Uncertainty as a Key Interdisciplinary Problem in Earth System Science / Florian Rauser, Gernot Geppert --
Uncertainty and Probability in Wildfire Management Decision Support / Matthew Thompson, David Calkin, Joe H Scott, Michael Hand --
Role of Uncertainty in Decision Support for Volcanic Ash Cloud Modeling / Peter Webley --
Geological Hazards. Building an Uncertainty Modeling Framework for Real-Time VATD / Peter Webley, Abani Patra, Marcus Bursik, E Bruce Pitman, Jonathan Dehn, Tarung Singh, Puneet Singla, Matthew D Jones, Reza Madankan, E Ramona Stefanescu, Solene Pouget --
Uncertainties in Estimating Magma Source Parameters from InSAR Observation / Wenyu Gong, Zhong Lu, Franz Meyer --
Improving Model Simulations of Volcanic Emission Clouds and Assessing Model Uncertainties / Nina Iren Kristiansen, Delia Arnold, Christian Maurer, Julius Vira, Razvan Rdulescu, Damien Martin, Andreas Stohl, Kerstin Stebel, Mikhail Sofiev, Colin O'Dowd, Gerhard Wotawa --
Uncertainty Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents at Mount Vesuvius (Italy) Simulated Through the Energy Cone Model / Pablo Tierz, Laura Sandri, Antonio Costa, Roberto Sulpizio, Lucia Zaccarelli, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Warner Marzocchi --
Earthquake Loss Estimation in the Gyeongju Area, Southeastern Korea, Using a Site Classification Map / Su Young Kang, Kwang-Hee Kim --
Implications of Different Digital Elevation Models and Preprocessing Techniques to Delineate Debris Flow Inundation Hazard Zones in El Salvador / Eric Ross Anderson, Robert E Griffin, Daniel E Irwin --
Evaluating the Performance of FLO2D for Simulating Past Lahar Events at the Most Active Mexican Volcanoes / Lizeth Caballero, Lucia Capra, Rosario Vá
zquez --
Biophysical and Climatic Hazards. An Uncertainty Analysis of Wildfire Modeling / Karin Riley, Matthew Thompson --
Fire and Smoke Remote Sensing and Modeling Uncertainties / Charles Ichoku, Luke T Ellison, Yun Yue, Jun Wang, Johannes W Kaiser --
Uncertainty and Complexity Tradeoffs When Integrating Fire Spread with Hydroecological Projections / Maureen C Kennedy, Donald McKenzie --
Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation for Projections of Extremes in Monthly Area Burned Under Climate Change / Adam J Terando, Brian Reich, Krishna Pacifici, Jennifer Costanza, Alexa McKerrow, Jaime A Collazo --
Simulating Vegetation Change, Carbon Cycling, and Fire Over the Western United States Using CMIP5 Climate Projections / D Bachelet, T Sheehan, K Ferschweiler, J Abatzoglou --
Sensitivity of Vegetation Fires to Climate, Vegetation, and Anthropogenic Drivers in the HESFIRE Model / Yannick Le Page --
Uncertainties in Predicting Debris Flow Hazards Following Wildfire / Kevin D Hyde, Karin Riley, Cathelijne Stoof --
Capturing Spatiotemporal Variation in Wildfires for Improving Postwildfire Debris-Flow Hazard Assessments / Jessica R Haas, Matthew Thompson, Anne Tillery, Joe H Scott --
Uncertainty in Estimation of Debris-Flow Triggering Rainfall / E I Nikolopoulos, F Marra, M Borga --
Prospects in Landslide Prediction / Natasha Markuzon, Catherine Slesnick, Erin Leidy, John Regan, Xiang Gao, Adam Schlosser.

✦ Subjects

Natural disasters;Mathematical models;BUSINESS & ECONOMICS;Infrastructure;SOCIAL SCIENCE;General