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Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts

✍ Scribed by Sharon Kozicki; P.A. Tinsley

Book ID
110264181
Publisher
Springer US
Year
1997
Tongue
English
Weight
188 KB
Volume
11
Category
Article
ISSN
1572-9974

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## Abstract This work assesses the value of climate forecasts for millet growers in Niger. We quantify the potential value of three kinds of categorical forecasts assigning cumulated rainfall during the forthcoming rainy season by tercile (dry, normal, or humid): (i) a realistic imperfect tercile f