✍ Scribed by Karl Halvor Teigen; Anne-Marie Halberg; Knut Inge Fostervold
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
Uncertain quantities can be described by single-point estimates of lower interval bounds (X 1 ), upper interval bounds (X 2 ), two-bound estimates (separate estimates of X 1 and X 2 ), and by ranges (X 1 ÀX 2 ). A price estimation task showed that single-bound estimates phrased as ''T costs more than X 1 '' and ''T costs less than X 2 ,'' yielded much larger intervals than ''minimum X 1 '' and ''maximum X 2 .'' This difference can be attributed to exclusive interpretations of X 1 and X 2 in the first case (X 1 and X 2 are unlikely values), and inclusive interpretations in the second (X 1 and X 2 are likely values). This pattern of results was replicated in other domains where participants estimated single targets. When they estimated a distribution of targets, the pattern was reversed. ''Minimum'' and ''maximum'' values of variable quantities (e.g., flight prices) were found to delimit larger intervals than ''more than'' and ''less than'' estimates.
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